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Top stories

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

Authors

8

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Ukrainian conflict

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1038429

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

70

37

2

Ww3 with nuclear

Mar 7, 12:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.05%chance

186910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

564

18

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.2%chance

836669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

677

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

34825

OptionProbability

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

January 2026

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

11

2

2

2

2

2

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

Aug 6, 4:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.94%chance

234666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1834

546

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.24%chance

194422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8978

3279

Who will the Wikipedia article for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict say was the victor one year after ceasefire/peace?

Oct 13, 12:30 AMJan 2, 1:29 AM

82218

OptionProbability

Neither

Russia

Ukraine

69

18

13

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?

Jan 1, 2:17 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

13.33%chance

82124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

392

Will WW3 start before gta6?

Feb 28, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

232104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026

Jan 30, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13612

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Feb 2026

36

28

24

18

8

4

1

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Apr 2, 4:57 PMJun 30, 12:00 AM

4.4%chance

14551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

95

WW3 begins in 2026

Jan 6, 7:33 PMJun 6, 9:59 PM

8.47%chance

10534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

83

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