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Top stories

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

Authors

8

9 days ago

Prediction markets for Ukrainian conflict

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1038418

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

70

39

2

Will US attack Ukraine in 2025?

Feb 22, 9:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.51%chance

327278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

524

19

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.36%chance

826609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

641

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.58%chance

283753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2540

394

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?

Aug 12, 9:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

12%chance

153445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

56.92%chance

223118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

271868

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

93

11

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

Aug 6, 4:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.5%chance

71555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

539

Iran officially accused by NATO of attacking a member state before 2026?

Jun 22, 2:02 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

17.25%chance

81230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

457

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

16.29%chance

16705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

933

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2025?

Apr 15, 9:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

7398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

462

22

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

2200

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