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Top stories

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

Authors

8

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Ukrainian conflict

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1038418

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

70

39

2

Will US attack Ukraine in 2025?

Feb 22, 9:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1%chance

327804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.2%chance

836669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

677

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?

Jun 6, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.45%chance

335337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4124

242

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?

Aug 12, 9:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

8.91%chance

163952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3198

313

Iran officially accused by NATO of attacking a member state before 2026?

Jun 22, 2:02 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

112821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3214

311

Who will the Wikipedia article for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict say was the victor one year after ceasefire/peace?

Oct 13, 12:30 AMJan 2, 1:29 AM

82218

OptionProbability

Neither

Russia

Ukraine

69

18

13

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

271868

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

93

11

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

Aug 6, 4:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.96%chance

81706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2003

499

When will the first 1000+ drone/missile strike hit Ukraine?

Jul 1, 10:07 AMAug 1, 10:01 AM

31700

OptionProbability

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2025

September 2025

21

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

2

2

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.39%chance

17855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

906

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2025?

Apr 15, 9:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.6%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

612

16

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