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Top stories

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

China Signals Willingness to Send Peacekeepers to Ukraine Under UN Mandate, Denies Plans After Die Welt Report and Zelensky Rejection

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Ukrainian conflict

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.24%chance

3513953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9603

3111

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1048434

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

69

37

2

Ww3 with nuclear

Mar 7, 12:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.39%chance

196911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

533

19

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.69%chance

846679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

687

Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?

Aug 6, 4:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.38%chance

285812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2545

393

Will WW3 start before gta6?

Feb 28, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.26%chance

292942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

658

15

Who will the Wikipedia article for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict say was the victor one year after ceasefire/peace?

Oct 13, 12:30 AMJan 2, 1:29 AM

92223

OptionProbability

Neither

Russia

Ukraine

69

18

13

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?

Jan 1, 2:17 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

13.18%chance

112214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2566

390

The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026

Jan 30, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211505

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Feb 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Aug 2026

18

16

5

1

1

1

1

Will Russia occupy Dnipro ( Dnepropetrovs'k ) at the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.92%chance

17668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

577

17

WW3 begins in 2026

Jan 6, 7:33 PMJun 6, 9:59 PM

4.01%chance

11644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

96

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