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Prediction markets for ULA

Will ULA's Vulcan rocket launch more often than SpaceX's Starship in 2025?

Oct 22, 7:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.9%chance

166405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2859

350

Conditional on humans settling mars by 2050, whose spaceships will send more of the first 100 settlers?

Aug 21, 4:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302548

OptionProbability

SpaceX

NASA

Other

China

Blue Origin

Ruscosmos

ULA

ESA

63

15

15

5

1

1

0

0

Will ULA be sold, and to whom, by EOY 2025?

Aug 16, 10:20 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

181474

OptionProbability

No sale

Other

Sierra Space

Amazon

Blue Origin

Boeing

Lockheed

66

9

8

6

4

3

3

Will Tory Bruno continue as ULA CEO through the end of 2025?

Aug 16, 10:31 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

73.59%chance

3670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

599

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2025?

Nov 21, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6168

OptionProbability

<= 6

<= 12

<= 4

<= 10

<= 8

> 12

<= 2

0

85

75

68

64

51

25

11

8

How many times will ULA launch in 2025?

May 2, 5:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

270

OptionProbability

5

4

6

1

2

3

7

8

9

10 or greater

27

23

14

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

60.98%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will ULA have reused engines by the end of 2030?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.39%chance

210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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