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Prediction markets for Ultimate Bet

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9017079

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

34

13

12

9

8

8

6

4

3

2

0

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.06%chance

929899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4516

729

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255763

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

32

28

14

13

7

4

2

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will leftists like Mamdani?

Sep 12, 3:01 AMJan 1, 3:53 AM

87.53%chance

162401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2650

377

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

131653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

146

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2030?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.8%chance

181218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

929

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Apr 17, 12:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.88%chance

151189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1597

814

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)

Jun 19, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.47%chance

414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

95

Will prediction markets as concept and its history record become extinct before 2100?

Sep 15, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

7.25%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

69

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