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Prediction markets for Ultimate Bet

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79%chance

11128446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

918539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3803

763

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

498201

OptionProbability

2035+

2029

2030

2027

2028

2031

2032

2034

2026

2033

2025

37

10

9

8

8

8

5

5

4

4

1

Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026?

Dec 24, 2:36 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.87%chance

366456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

100

Black Mirror Season 7 [Prop bets/Megamarket]

Mar 20, 7:40 PMDec 31, 6:59 AM

314766

OptionProbability

Actor with Oscar nomination plays a role

All episodes released at once

Something from the season nominated for an Emmy

Average episode rating ≥7.0 on IMDB EOY 2025

Average episode rating ≥7.5 on IMDB EOY 2025

Somebody doubting whether another robot/human is a robot or human

The words "black" and "mirror" are spoken in the same sentence

Bonus episode outside of the original 6

Aaron Paul plays a role

First episode drops in Q4-2025

First episode drops in Q3-2025

Something from the season wins an Emmy award

An episode is more than 5% frames from generative AI

100

100

100

95

95

87

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Breakthrough in symbolic regression by the end of 2025?

Aug 27, 1:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.11%chance

142375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2993

543

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.33%chance

232102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

961

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2030?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.8%chance

181218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

929

Will leftists like Mamdani?

Sep 12, 3:01 AMJan 1, 3:53 AM

60.25%chance

121132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

812

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Apr 17, 12:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.69%chance

15752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

827

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.17%chance

9405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

266

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