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Prediction markets for Ultimate Bet

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

918539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3803

763

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

Who is ultimately behind the xz backdoor?

Mar 30, 11:33 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

331717

OptionProbability

China

Russia

Israel

USA

36

29

23

19

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2030?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.8%chance

181218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

929

Will leftists like Mamdani?

Sep 12, 3:01 AMJan 1, 3:53 AM

60.25%chance

121132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

812

Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026)

Nov 27, 11:26 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

7826

OptionProbability

No replication attempt published

Controversial resolution

Replication

Retraction/Notice of concern

Failure to replicate

94

9

7

7

6

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Apr 17, 12:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.69%chance

15752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

827

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.17%chance

9405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

266

Which flag design will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:20 PMAug 30, 7:12 PM

10127

OptionProbability

White five petal flower design

Blue hills design

Crimson turkey feathers design

Other

65

18

12

6

Which motto will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:24 PMAug 30, 7:22 PM

5103

OptionProbability

Other

We Rejoice in the public good

Many Voices, One Commonwealth

We honor all life guided by the First Light

40

31

25

4

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