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Prediction markets for Ultimate Bet

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1816

552

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.06%chance

929899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4516

729

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255760

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

32

28

14

12

7

4

2

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

242152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

983

Will leftists like Mamdani?

Sep 12, 3:01 AMJan 1, 3:53 AM

79.53%chance

141722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

507

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.02%chance

111566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

147

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2030?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.8%chance

181218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

929

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Apr 17, 12:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.82%chance

151002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1784

779

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.49%chance

11456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

716

262

Which seal design will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:22 PMAug 30, 7:20 PM

455

OptionProbability

Whale and bird design

Hill and stars design

Chickadee and feathers design

Other

36

31

18

15

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027? (Tumbles Judgement)

Jun 19, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

34

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

85

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