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Prediction markets for Ultimate Member

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

14.69%chance

24770228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

715

Will Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?

Jan 29, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.98%chance

226754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2691

709

By 2040, will there be a one-world government WITH a one-world currency?

Jan 23, 9:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.33%chance

282859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

38

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Jan 22, 12:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.3%chance

13661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

15340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Alliance of Sahel States establish a federal state (country) during which years? (Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali)

Jun 12, 1:26 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

266

OptionProbability

Other

2026

2027 0r 2028

2029 to 2033

2034 to 2039

30

18

18

18

18

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