Under the Bridge News

🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)

Jan 2, 1:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20842071

OptionProbability

President with Green Eyes elected

Crewed mission to Phobos

USA adds 52nd state

Room temperature superconductor discovered

UK has a queen again

24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

Olympics hosted in Japan again

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

RSA-2048 cracked

Harlem Globetrotters lose again

2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

The Beatles music enters the public domain

Batman enters the public domain

Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

Norway Bans Whaling

human dies on the moon

African company or country lands on moon

Japan Bans Whaling

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

Pokemon Card sells for $10M

First hispanic USA president

Olympics hosted in Africa

Longest suspension bridge record broken

Team Fortress 3 releases

Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

Pickleball in the Olympics

End support date for Windows 12

Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO (after 2026)

19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

USA Adds 51st state

ChatGPT 10 releases

Superman enters the public domain

Human walks on mars

The version after Windows 12 releases

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

Centennial Lightbulb burns out

Underwater hold breath world record broken

Blood Meridian movie release

Destiny retires from regular streaming

First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

Bugs Bunny enters public domain

Windows 11 end support date

Peppa Pig ends

EU reaches 30 member states

Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

The first $10T market cap company

Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

India hosts the Olympics

1500 Pokemon Released

Civilization 8 releases

Star Citizen releases or company ceases

Family Guy ends

Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

First female USA president

South Park ends

Chicago ends on Broadway

Manifold reaches 20K MAU

Xi no longer in power in China

James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

Simpsons ends

Iceland Bans Whaling

Another MLB perfect game pitched

1300 Pokemon Released

Sagrada Familia Church completed

One piece manga ends

Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

Human walks on moon again

Trump Dies

Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

Half Life 3 releases

USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

Manifold reaches 40K MAU

Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

Skibidi Toilet ends

a third Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

ChatGPT 7 releases

a USA president impeached again

Putin no longer in power in Russia

Shrek 5 releases

Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

ChatGPT 6 releases

First Trillionaire (USD)

Human runs official marathon under 2h

Price of gold hits $5000/oz

The first $5T market cap company

USA discontinues or changes penny coin

Death Stranding 2 releases

First $100B revenue media franchise

New Pope after Francis

Civilization 7 releases

Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

Sweden joins NATO

What are some of the best educational games?

Sep 8, 3:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8931447

OptionProbability

Other

PianoVision

Quantum Odyssey

The Farmer Was Replaced

Treasure Cove

Math blasters

Brain Age

Dance Dance Revolution

Turing Complete

Rocksmith

NandGame

Scale of the universe

SHENZHEN I/O

Zoombinis

https://www.geogridgame.com/

Mahjong

runescape

Poly Bridge

Victoria II

Universal Paperclips [Invalid, already played]

Antbuster [Invalid, already played]

Spore [Invalid, already played]

Geoguessr [Invalid, already played]

A Slower Speed of Light [Invalid, already played]

Scrandle

Epistory

The Forgotten City

ANTE

Europa Universalis IV

Silicon Zeroes

Factorio [Invalid, already played]

Magic the Gathering [Invalid, already played]

Zendo

Jahooma's logic box

Civilization VI [Invalid, already played]

Murder, she bet

Terraforming Mars [Invalid, already played]

Captain of Industry

Hackmud

Cool Math Games [Invalid, not a game]

Duo Lingo [Invalid, not a game]

Democracy 3

Plague Inc: Evolved

Age of Empires II [Invalid, already played]

Airport CEO

Kerbal Space Program [Invalid, already played]

Chess [Invalid, already played]

Cellcraft [Invalid, already played]

Imperivm: Great Battles of Rome

Pharaoh

Untrusted

Cinco Paus

We Become What We Behold

Sine Rider

http://robozzle.com/

https://logicbox.jahooma.com/

https://lab.quantumflytrap.com/

The Battle of Polytopia

https://microcorruption.com/

Frog Fractions

Poker [Invalid, already played]

Monopoly [Invalid, already played]

Best Album at 2027 Grammy Award ceremony?

Apr 13, 12:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

1615433

OptionProbability

Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love

Rosalia, Lux

Olivia Dean, The Art of Loving

Noah Kahan, The Great Divide

Phoebe Bridgers, Lost Weekend

Madonna, Confessions II

Ella Langley, Dandelion

Taylor Swift, The Life of a Showgirl

Other

Brandi Carlisle, Returning To Myself

Bruno Mars, The Romantic

Justin Bieber, Swag II

Rob Thomas, All Night Days

Cardi B, Am I the Drama?

Doja Cat, Vie

Tame Impala, Deadbeat

21 Savage, What Happened to the Streets?

Snow tha Product, Before I Crash Out

NOFX, A to H

Alter Bridge, Alter Bridge

ASAP Rocky, Don't Be Dumb

Nick Jonas, Sunday Best

Charli XCX, Wuthering Heights

Mumford & Sons, Prizefighter

Gorillaz, The Mountain

Hillary Duff, Luck. . . Or Something

Yungblud, Idols II

BLACKPINK, DEADLINE

BTS, Arirang

Nine Inch Nails, Nine Inch Noize

Demi Lovato, It's Not That Deep

Foo Fighters, Your Favorite Toy

Jason Aldean, Songs About Us

Gracie Abrams, Daughter from Hell

Ariana Grande, Petal

Flea, Honora

Harry Styles, Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally

Drake, Iceman

Evanescence, Sanctuary

Afroman, Freedom of Speech

M.I.A., M.I.7.

Goose, Big Modern!

Hayley Kiyoko, Girls like Girls

The Warning, Everything's Falling

Paul McCartney, The Boys of Dungeon Lane

Raye, This Music May Contain Hope

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films from last time will make it again?

Mar 4, 4:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

286636

OptionProbability

Citizen Kane

Schindler's List

The Godfather

Casablanca

Raging Bull

Singin in the Rain

Vertigo

The Shawshank Redemption

Gone with the Wind

The Wizard of Oz

City Lights

The Sound of Music

West Side Story

Lawrence of Arabia

Bridge on the River Kwai

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

King Kong (original)

Bonnie and Clyde

Midnight Cowboy

The Philadelphia Story

It Happened One Night

The Graduate

To Kill a Mockingbird

All About Eve

The Maltese Falcon

One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Dr Strangelove

Jaws

Star Wars

Psycho

2001 A Space Odyssey

Sunset Boulevard

The General

On The Waterfront

It's a Wonderful Life

Some Like it Hot

The Grapes of Wrath

ET the Extra Terrestrial

Mr Smith Goes to Washington

Double Indemnity

Apocalypse Now

Godfather Part II

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

Annie Hall

A Streetcar Named Desire

Rear Window

Taxi Driver

The Deer Hunter

M*A*S*H*

North by Northwest

Rocky

The Gold Rush

Sullivan's Travels

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

Chinatown

High Noon

Intolerance

Nashville

Shane

Duck Soup

Network

The African Queen

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

Unforgiven

The Searchers

Saving Private Ryan

A Clockwork Orange

Cabaret

Tootsie

Do The Right Thing

American Graffiti

Pulp Fiction

12 Angry Men

Platoon

Silence of the Lambs

Titanic

The Sixth Sense

Goodfellas

Toy Story

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

In the Heat of the Night

Modern Times

The Wild Bunch

Spartacus

A Night at the Opera

Swing Time

Sophie's Choice

The Last Picture Show

The Best Years of our Lives

All the President's Men

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

Easy Rider

Bringing Up Baby

Yankee Doodle Dandy

The Apartment

Forrest Gump

Blade Runner

Ben-Hur

The French Connection

What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player

Feb 24, 3:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

184613

OptionProbability

Other

Math Olympiad or related major Math competitions

League of Legends

Shogi

Bridge

Chess

Settlers of Catan

Magic the Gathering

Age of Empires 2

Geoguessr

Scrabble

Diplomacy (with press)

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143479

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

100

What will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer)

Mar 26, 11:07 PMMar 23, 6:59 AM

372650

OptionProbability

Ship dropped anchor before colliding with the bridge

An emergency generator was activated on the ship before the collision

An overload trip mechanism was activated on the ship

Ship ran propeller in reverse before colliding with bridge

A person on the ship at the time of the collision will be convicted of assault against another person on the ship.

Ship switched from one primary fuel source to another between leaving and colliding with bridge

At least one member of the road crew working on the bridge received a warning about the ship via phone/radio before the collision

Between the ship undocking and the collision, a person on the ship sustained a physical injury serious enough to prevent them from doing their job

Ship had bad fuel

A part of the ship other than the anchor fell off between leaving and the collision

Ship rudder was not disabled during power loss event.

Ship operators were on drugs

Ship sounded its horn at least once between the first power loss and the collision

A person was trespassing on the ship at the time of the collision

The loss of power was caused by a cooling water blockage

Container Ship was victim of cyber attack

100

Which party will win the Presidency? Will the Ukraine sever the land bridge between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)?

Mar 1, 6:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

112281

OptionProbability

Republicans, Ukraine doesn't take land bridge

Republicans, Ukraine takes land bridge

Democrats, Ukraine takes land bridge

Democrats, Ukraine doesn't take land bridge

What type of water crossing will replace the FSK Bridge in Baltimore?

Mar 27, 1:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

151119

OptionProbability

Cable-stayed bridge

Suspension bridge

No new crossing

Immersed tunnel

Arch bridge

Beam bridge

Truss bridge

Bored tunnel

Other

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, what will the ranking order of films be?

Mar 3, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7874

OptionProbability

High Noon

The Gold Rush

Sophie's Choice

Goodfellas

The French Connection

Pulp Fiction

The Last Picture Show

Do The Right Thing

Blade Runner

Yankee Doodle Dandy

Toy Story

Ben-Hur

The General

On The Waterfront

It's a Wonderful Life

Chinatown

The Grapes of Wrath

ET the Extra Terrestrial

To Kill a Mockingbird

Mr Smith Goes to Washington

Double Indemnity

The Maltese Falcon

Godfather Part II

One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

Annie Hall

Bridge on the River Kwai

The Best Years of our Lives

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

The Sound of Music

King Kong (original)

Bonnie and Clyde

Midnight Cowboy

The Philadelphia Story

Shane

It Happened One Night

A Streetcar Named Desier

Rear Window

Intolerance

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

West Side Story

Taxi Driver

The Deer Hunter

M*A*S*H*

North by Northwest

Jaws

Rocky

Nashville

Duck Soup

Sullivan's Travels

American Graffiti

Cabaret

Network

The African Queen

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

Unforgiven

Tootsie

A Clockwork Orange

Saving Private Ryan

The Shawshank Redemption

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

Silence of the Lambs

In the Heat of the Night

Forrest Gump

All the President's Men

Modern Times

The Wild Bunch

The Apartment

Spartacus

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

Titanic

Easy Rider

A Night at the Opera

Platoon

12 Angry Men

Bringing Up Baby

The Sixth Sense

Swing Tie

Raging Bull

Singin in the Rain

Vertigo

City Lights

The Searchers

Psycho

2001 A Space Odyssey

Sunset Boulevard

The Graduate

Dr Strangelove

Some Like it Hot

Schindler's List

The Wizard of Oz

Apocalypse Now

Star Wars

All About Eve

Lawrence of Arabia

Gone with the Wind

Casablanca

The Godfather

Citizen Kane

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1325

OptionProbability

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

Who will be the king of the ile Orléans bridge project

Aug 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 9:17 PM

OptionProbability

Daniel Perron

Étienne Lemieux

Stéphane Vachon

Under the Bridge News

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Prediction markets for Under the Bridge

Prediction markets for Under the Bridge

🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (13/100 DONE)

What are some of the best educational games?

Best Album at 2027 Grammy Award ceremony?

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films from last time will make it again?

What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

What will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer)

Which party will win the Presidency? Will the Ukraine sever the land bridge between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)?

What type of water crossing will replace the FSK Bridge in Baltimore?

🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, what will the ranking order of films be?

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Who will be the king of the ile Orléans bridge project

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