Universal Accounts News

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

YES

1862

538

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.32%chance

343263

OptionVotes

YES

1102

779

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

YES

1871

534

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.56%chance

251467

OptionVotes

YES

1589

587

What will my net income be in 2030? (Conditional on dropping out)

Feb 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9993

OptionProbability

Above $25,000

Above $50,000

Above $100,000

Above $200,000

Above $500,000

Above $1,000,000

Above $10,000,000

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.02%chance

16900

OptionVotes

YES

1653

795

What explains the Hubble Tension

Jan 19, 3:13 PMJan 19, 3:06 PM

9489

OptionProbability

Evolving dark energy with time-dependent properties

Systematic errors in distance measurement techniques

Relativistic backreaction / timescape cosmology (breakdown of global FLRW averaging)

Early dark energy in the early universe

Local cosmic void (KBC void) around the Milky Way

Measurement errors in CMB calibration

Interactions between dark matter and dark energy

New relativistic particles in early universe

Rotating universe model

Vacuum phase transition in early universe

Modified gravity theory (MOND/Milgromian dynamics)

Non-zero spatial curvature of the universe

Polymarket exceeds $6B trading volume in June 2026?

Nov 20, 4:39 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

35.66%chance

10310

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will an Emergency Fiscal / Budgetary Crisis occur in New York (NYC) under Mayor Zohran Mamdani 💰🤑🏛️💥📈 🗽🏙️

Jan 14, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.24%chance

6282

OptionVotes

YES

184

Polymarket exceeds $6B monthly trading volume in Sep 2026?

Nov 20, 4:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

5205

OptionVotes

YES

115

Universal Accounts News

Prediction markets for Universal Accounts

Prediction markets for Universal Accounts

Prediction markets for Universal Accounts

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

What will my net income be in 2030? (Conditional on dropping out)

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

What explains the Hubble Tension

Polymarket exceeds $6B trading volume in June 2026?

Will an Emergency Fiscal / Budgetary Crisis occur in New York (NYC) under Mayor Zohran Mamdani 💰🤑🏛️💥📈 🗽🏙️

Polymarket exceeds $6B monthly trading volume in Sep 2026?

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