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Prediction markets for Universal Accounts

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.32%chance

343263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

779

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.56%chance

251467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1589

587

Will I drop out of university?

Feb 4, 6:32 AMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

30.17%chance

161204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

657

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.02%chance

16900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

795

What will my net income be in 2030? (Conditional on not dropping out)

Feb 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6802

OptionProbability

Above $25,000

Above $50,000

Above $100,000

Above $200,000

Above $500,000

Above $1,000,000

Above $10,000,000

78

59

50

42

39

23

5

What will my net income be in 2030? (Conditional on dropping out)

Feb 4, 6:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5473

OptionProbability

Above $25,000

Above $50,000

Above $100,000

Above $200,000

Above $500,000

Above $1,000,000

Above $10,000,000

76

50

50

42

39

35

11

What explains the Hubble Tension

Jan 19, 3:13 PMJan 19, 3:06 PM

6445

OptionProbability

Evolving dark energy with time-dependent properties

Systematic errors in distance measurement techniques

Early dark energy in the early universe

Local cosmic void (KBC void) around the Milky Way

Measurement errors in CMB calibration

Interactions between dark matter and dark energy

New relativistic particles in early universe

Rotating universe model

Vacuum phase transition in early universe

Non-zero spatial curvature of the universe

Modified gravity theory (MOND/Milgromian dynamics)

56

44

35

35

35

29

29

29

29

11

10

Polymarket exceeds $6B monthly trading volume in Sep 2026?

Nov 20, 4:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

4140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

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