Up All Night News

Arson

Murder

Genocide

2008 bank bailouts

two financial crimes

Sexual assault

Rape

Election fraud

financial crimes veiled as altruism

ballot harvesting

Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

Racism against Asian people

Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

offering drugs to a minor

stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

Giving away free samples of meth at a school

Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

Committing war crime.

Intensive pig farming

Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

Firebombing a major city

Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

Farming octopuses for food

Whatever is going on at Boeing

Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

Octopi farming us for food

Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

Octopus sex trafficking.

Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

Selling orphans fed only pie meat

Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

Stealing a SpaceX Starship

Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

Carjacking an old lady

Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

Stealing the Declaration of Independence

Operating a child beauty pageant

Andrew Tate

Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

One hundred moving violations

Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

Touching minors/ being a pedophile

Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

Stealing Nicholas Cage

Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

The genocide in Gaza

Russia's genocide in Ukraine

Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

Slavery

Grooming kids

Being the leader of a crime syndicate

9/11

Stranding two astronauts in space

Disturbing the space-time continuum

Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

Sexual harassment

Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

Killing the United Healthcare CEO

Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

Sheltering enemies of the state

Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

Weaponizing autism

Having a podcast

Yelling racial slurs in public

Jaywalking

Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

Cheating on spouse

Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

Income taxes

Copyright infringement

Romeo and Juliet relationships

Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

Welfare fraud

Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

Grave robbery

Saying the N-word every day as a white person

Discrimination based on race

Discrimination based on sexual orientation

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

Racism against black people

Racism against white people

Sleep Token (Band)

not seeding your torrents

Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

twincest

drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

working as a prostitute

hiring a prostitute

hiring a prostitute, long term

Inventing Monero

Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

The most offensive Halloween costume ever

frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

Doing blackface

Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

the Asiana flight 214 prank

Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

Cloning yourself

Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

making mifeprestone available OTC

making adderall available OTC

Killing yourself

Cloning someone else

Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

Calling octopuses "octopi"

Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

Illegally registering octopuses to vote

Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

Conducting gain-of-function research

Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

Adding an option to a market right before it closes

Writing a "goto" statement when programming

Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

Selling dope disguised as a nun.

Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

Interrupting cows.

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

One moving violation.

Purchasing one whole chicken

Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Cattle rustling

Horse thievery

Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

Sumptuary law violations

Homeopathy

Price Gouging

Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

Failing to commit a financial crime

Stealing a car

Stealing from Elon Musk

Committing a financial crime against X (company)

Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

Carjacking Elon Musk

An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

Carjacking a dumb octopus

A financial crime committed by an old lady

Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

Raping an AI avatar in VR

Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

Bad bagels

Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

Still getting notifications for this market

Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

scaring the shit out of a magpie

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

Committing sewerslide

Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

Arby’s

Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

Founding Christianity

You, the reader

One hundred counts of littering

Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

BTE Ban evading

Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

Transing children

Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

Other

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Someone solves agent foundations

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to an activist

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

Belong to a start-up

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a large company

Belong to the US military/gov

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Aliens

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

Linked to China (government/military)

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

UK has a queen again

USA adds 52nd state

President with Green Eyes elected

Room temperature superconductor discovered

24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

Olympics hosted in Japan again

ChatGPT 10 releases

RSA-2048 cracked

Crewed mission to Phobos

Harlem Globetrotters lose again

2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

Batman enters the public domain

The Beatles music enters the public domain

19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

Norway Bans Whaling

African company or country lands on moon

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

Olympics hosted in Africa

Japan Bans Whaling

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

Longest suspension bridge record broken

Pokemon Card sells for $10M

First hispanic USA president

End support date for Windows 12

Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

Pickleball in the Olympics

Team Fortress 3 releases

ChatGPT 7 releases

human dies on the moon

Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

Human walks on mars

The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

The first $10T market cap company

Chicago ends on Broadway

First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

USA Adds 51st state

USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

Superman enters the public domain

Iceland Bans Whaling

The version after Windows 12 releases

Centennial Lightbulb burns out

Underwater hold breath world record broken

Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

Destiny retires from regular streaming

Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

Peppa Pig ends

EU reaches 30 member states

First female USA president

Windows 11 end support date

Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

India hosts the Olympics

Blood Meridian movie release

marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

Star Citizen releases or company ceases

Family Guy ends

Civilization 8 releases

Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

ChatGPT 6 releases

South Park ends

Manifold reaches 20K MAU

1500 Pokemon Released

Xi no longer in power in China

Simpsons ends

First Trillionaire (USD)

Bugs Bunny enters public domain

1300 Pokemon Released

Manifold reaches 40K MAU

USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

Trump Dies

James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

Human walks on moon again

Price of gold hits $5000/oz

Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

Putin no longer in power in Russia

Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

One piece manga ends

a USA president impeached again

Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

Human runs official marathon under 2h

Skibidi Toilet ends

The first $5T market cap company

Half Life 3 releases

Sagrada Familia Church completed

Another MLB perfect game pitched

Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

Shrek 5 releases

Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

USA discontinues or changes penny coin

Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

Death Stranding 2 releases

First $100B revenue media franchise

New Pope after Francis

Civilization 7 releases

Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

Other

Alexander Grothendieck

Euclid (of Geometry)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Von Neumann

Ramanujan

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

Citizen Kane

Schindler's List

The Godfather

Casablanca

Raging Bull

Singin in the Rain

The Shawshank Redemption

Gone with the Wind

Vertigo

The Wizard of Oz

City Lights

The Sound of Music

West Side Story

Lawrence of Arabia

Bridge on the River Kwai

Treasure of the Sierra Madre

King Kong (original)

Bonnie and Clyde

Midnight Cowboy

The Philadelphia Story

It Happened One Night

The Graduate

To Kill a Mockingbird

All About Eve

The Maltese Falcon

One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

Jaws

Star Wars

Psycho

2001 A Space Odyssey

Sunset Boulevard

The General

On The Waterfront

It's a Wonderful Life

Some Like it Hot

The Grapes of Wrath

ET the Extra Terrestrial

Mr Smith Goes to Washington

Double Indemnity

Apocalypse Now

Godfather Part II

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

Annie Hall

Dr Strangelove

A Streetcar Named Desire

Rear Window

Taxi Driver

The Deer Hunter

M*A*S*H*

North by Northwest

Rocky

The Gold Rush

Sullivan's Travels

Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

Chinatown

High Noon

Intolerance

Nashville

Shane

Duck Soup

Network

The African Queen

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

Unforgiven

The Searchers

Saving Private Ryan

A Clockwork Orange

Cabaret

Tootsie

American Graffiti

Pulp Fiction

Platoon

Silence of the Lambs

Titanic

12 Angry Men

The Sixth Sense

Goodfellas

Do The Right Thing

Toy Story

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

In the Heat of the Night

Modern Times

The Wild Bunch

Spartacus

A Night at the Opera

Swing Time

Sophie's Choice

The Last Picture Show

The Best Years of our Lives

All the President's Men

Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

Easy Rider

Bringing Up Baby

Yankee Doodle Dandy

The Apartment

Forrest Gump

Blade Runner

Ben-Hur

Demon Slayer (2016)

Fortnite (2017)

Genshin Impact (2020)

Frozen (Disney) (2013)

Hazbin Hotel

DC Extended Universe (2013)

Paw Patrol (2013)

Five Nights at Freddys

Yo-kai Watch (2013)

Palworld (2024)

Candy Crush (2012)

Among Us

One Piece

Simpsons

Shovel Knight

Roblox

Five Nights at Freddys

Frozen (Disney)

Raid Shadow Legends

Hunger Games

Minecraft

Pokemon

Yu Gi Oh

From Software (elden ring, dark souls, etc)

Undertale

Team Fortress / Half Life (Valve properties)

Magic: the Gathering

Doctor Who

Palworld

American Dad

Nintendo (non-pokemon)

Dora the Explorer

Life is Strange

ASDFMovie

Among Us

League of Legends

Shovel Knight

Five Nights at Freddy's

I get my car a very weird paint job which would make it unsellable

Will go to edge Esmeralda (in any capacity, at least one event)

Will get cavity preventing bacteria

Japan JET Reunion 2025

I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places

Pickleball tournament

I use computer vision to run diy studies of politeness behavior, grouped by car brand etc

I start an AI beauty/art twitter and get 1k followers

I document a method of self modifying an SLR by blackening all surfaces

Publish and finish personal)group predictions tracking software

AI phrenology - publish a doc on a study of AI image generation models differential portrayals of previously very hard to measure aspects of the human condition such as facial shape linkages to personality

Build a personal pickleball court and attract community members to play there

Surreptitiously construct additional pickleball courts at Foster City

Publish an edited dashcam video of all the things I've filmed with the Tesla ssd

Tool to view twitter as someone else. Given that follows are public this should be easy

Create a nice Tesla models y fold over screen cover with cutouts for vital areas only. Makes night driving much easier. No need for a distracting map view if you're not turning for 200 miles

I off road hike far into iron point outside Golconda, NV

I set a personal daily mileage record

Make balatro mod which shows currently selected hand score if played (ie everyone's need for this otherwise great game)

Get gphotos to fix any of their innumerable UI bugs by complaining

Have a sci-fi story published online somewhere

Make neighborhood intro video with stories etc

Will go to a natal conference again

Local Free library and bulletin board at my place

Overland trek to CITY in Nevada, an off-limits experimental art city which has been in progress for over 50 years

Go to Mexico to see Trevor Bauer play

Go see the Starship 4 launch in Texas in 2024

Release "Reading the mind in the AI generated images"

Get over 1k users for my browser extension

Ship something involving image => description => more images to users

I go to West Africa and go to concerts, visit Nollywood etc

I write a science fiction novel about aliens who experiment with forced evolution