Up Mobile News

Bitcoin + AI

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

AI + Genetics

Bitcoin + XR

Social media + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Spatial Computing

AI + Medicine

Fintech + AI

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Bioengineering

AI + Physics

AI + Robotics

3D Printing + Materials Science

BCI + Internet

Mobile Technology + Social Media

AI + IoT

XR + AI

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

AI + VR

AI+Blockchain

AI + Prediction Markets

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

BCI + Dating Apps

Other

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

Micron Technology (MU)

Lam Research (LRCX)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Walmart (WMT)

ExxonMobil (XOM)

Chevron (CVX)

Costco (COST)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Philip Morris (PM)

Home Depot (HD)

Cisco (CSCO)

Merck & Co. (MRK)

Coca-Cola (KO)

Procter & Gamble (PG)

RTX Corporation (RTX)

McDonald's (MCD)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

Meta Platforms (META)

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

Citigroup (C)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

IBM (IBM)

GE Aerospace (GE)

Tesla (TSLA)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Bank of America (BAC)

Eli Lilly (LLY)

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Apple (AAPL)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

AbbVie (ABBV)

American Express (AXP)

Mastercard (MA)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Amazon (AMZN)

Visa (V)

Netflix (NFLX)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Oracle (ORCL)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Salesforce (CRM)

Direct commercial flights to the EU resume

Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment

Partial mobilization formally ends

Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)

New FSB director appointed

Amnesty for draft evasion announced

New prime minister appointed

Early State Duma elections called

Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor

Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation

Russia militarily invades another country

Russia rejoins the Council of Europe

Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Oxford, UK

Madrid, Spain

Santiago, Chile

Kyoto, Japan

Washington, DC

Other

Berlin, Germany

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Yes, an officially licensed physical pinball machine.

Yes, a remake.

Yes, an official game for mobile phones.

Yes, a pinball minigame in a minigame collection

It includes 3-D animated media

It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities

It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)

It includes a new comic book series

A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)

It includes at least an hour of animated media

It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation

A new fan convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)

It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters

Microsoft

Alphabet (Google)

TSMC

NVIDIA

Apple

Tesla

Amazon

Tencent

Broadcom

Samsung Electronics

Saudi Aramco

ASML Holding

Alibaba

BYD Company

Meta Platforms (Facebook)

Reliance Industries

Berkshire Hathaway

Exxon Mobil

Mastercard

Johnson & Johnson

JPMorgan Chase

UnitedHealth Group

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Visa

Other

Call of Duty: Mobile

Cybersecurity / cryptography

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Government / defence

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.