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Bitcoin + AI

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

AI + Medicine

AI + Genetics

Social media + AI

Bitcoin + XR

AI + Spatial Computing

AI + Internet

AI + Robotics

AI + Physics

Fintech + AI

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Bioengineering

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

3D Printing + Materials Science

BCI + Internet

AI+Blockchain

Mobile Technology + Social Media

XR + AI

AI + Prediction Markets

AI + IoT

AI + VR

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

BCI + Dating Apps

Micron Technology (MU)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

ExxonMobil (XOM)

Lam Research (LRCX)

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Chevron (CVX)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Costco (COST)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Walmart (WMT)

Amazon (AMZN)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Coca-Cola (KO)

Merck & Co. (MRK)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Citigroup (C)

Cisco (CSCO)

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Philip Morris (PM)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Apple (AAPL)

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Netflix (NFLX)

Eli Lilly (LLY)

RTX Corporation (RTX)

GE Aerospace (GE)

McDonald's (MCD)

Meta Platforms (META)

Tesla (TSLA)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Bank of America (BAC)

Home Depot (HD)

Oracle (ORCL)

AbbVie (ABBV)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Visa (V)

American Express (AXP)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

Mastercard (MA)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Salesforce (CRM)

AppLovin (APP)

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

IBM (IBM)

Prediction markets are good

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Authoritarian populism is bad actually

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

Most organized religion are false

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

Pineapple pizza tastes good

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

Liberal-democracy is good actually

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

California is wildly overrated.

Political libertarianism

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

Being a billionaire is morally wrong.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

You should bet NO on this option

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

God is evil

A sandwich is a type of hot dog

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

China not having real democracy does more good than harm

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon

Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

The next American moon landing will be faked

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

Humans don't have free will.

AI art is better than human art

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The first American moon landing was faked

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

Military Installation or Static Deployment

Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air)

Diplomatic Mission

Homeland / Sovereign Territory

Direct commercial flights to the EU resume

Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment

Partial mobilization formally ends

Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)

New FSB director appointed

Amnesty for draft evasion announced

New prime minister appointed

Early State Duma elections called

Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor

Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation

Russia militarily invades another country

Russia rejoins the Council of Europe

Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Madrid, Spain

Oxford, UK

Kyoto, Japan

Santiago, Chile

Washington, DC

Other

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Yes, an officially licensed physical pinball machine.

Yes, a remake.

Yes, an official game for mobile phones.

Yes, a pinball minigame in a minigame collection

Burn area painless before April

Itching mostly gone (or never appeared) before July

Itching starts before April

Infection occurs before August as a result

It includes 3-D animated media

It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities

It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)

It includes a new comic book series

A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)

It includes at least an hour of animated media

It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation

A new fan convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)

It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters

Other

Call of Duty: Mobile

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.