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Prediction markets for Update

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

262479246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10207

8290

When will Balatro's "1.1" update come out?

Feb 8, 7:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1611848

OptionProbability

October

August

Not before 2026

September

November

December

February

March

April

May

June

July

29

22

17

11

11

11

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?

Feb 4, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.8%chance

648747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2935

654

Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?

Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM

71%chance

334500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1362

769

Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?

Nov 16, 2:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.62%chance

272956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3256

307

Will Switch 2 LCD response times be improved in a software update?

Jun 27, 12:39 AMDec 31, 1:34 AM

18.81%chance

91364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2078

481

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.74%chance

301129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

798

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.02%chance

23775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

878

Will Manifold ever release a major front end design update with an accompanying “what’s new” summary pop up?

Mar 7, 2:32 AMMar 14, 3:59 AM

84.4%chance

13322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

362

107

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.26%chance

19312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

939

Geometry Dash update 2.21 release date?

Apr 4, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5272

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.55%chance

11206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

891

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