Updates News
Prediction markets for Updates
If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.42%chance
264484823
OptionVotes
10407
7511
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
Feb 4, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.8%chance
648747
OptionVotes
2935
654
Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?
Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM
71%chance
334500
OptionVotes
1362
769
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
Nov 16, 2:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8.62%chance
272956
OptionVotes
3256
307
Will Switch 2 LCD response times be improved in a software update?
Jun 27, 12:39 AMDec 31, 1:34 AM
18.09%chance
91414
OptionVotes
2128
470
Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?
Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
45.74%chance
301129
OptionVotes
1140
798
Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?
Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
80.02%chance
23775
OptionVotes
1321
878
Will Manifold ever release a major front end design update with an accompanying “what’s new” summary pop up?
Mar 7, 2:32 AMMar 14, 3:59 AM
84.4%chance
13322
OptionVotes
362
107
If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?
Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
50.26%chance
19312
OptionVotes
1053
939
Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?
Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
37.55%chance
11206
OptionVotes
1050
891
OptionVotes
184
54
Google algorithm update causes 50% SERP volatility by November 15, 2025?
Aug 5, 10:00 PMNov 15, 9:59 PM
54.8%chance
2121
OptionVotes
1101
908