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Prediction markets for Upload

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

732

Will YouTube begin restricting uploads by the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.04%chance

144725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3381

296

Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.55%chance

534488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

783

Will "No, we haven't uploaded a fly yet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 20, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.07%chance

93558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

917

Will Donald Trump ever be uploaded?

Sep 30, 10:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.6%chance

202718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

954

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2075?

Dec 6, 5:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.93%chance

151753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

534

253

Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033?

Feb 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76%chance

371383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

889

Will CGPGrey upload their brain into a computer before 2040?

Mar 24, 1:42 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.12%chance

381357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

981

878

Will Joe Biden ever be uploaded?

Sep 30, 10:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.19%chance

171065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

931

Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.9%chance

10562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

945

Once it becomes possible for the general populace to upload themselves, will at least 50% of them have done so within 2 years?

Nov 16, 12:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.24%chance

19356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

961

Will Uploaded Intelligence (human brain upload) exist by 2050?

Jan 3, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.77%chance

10294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

135

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