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Prediction markets for Upload

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

726211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

1106

Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.39%chance

524483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

786

Will YouTube begin restricting uploads by the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

133706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2362

423

Will "No, we haven't uploaded a fly yet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 20, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.07%chance

93558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1701

917

Will a full human mind be uploaded and running on a computer by 2030?

Feb 10, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.97%chance

423066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2232

904

Will Donald Trump ever be uploaded?

Sep 30, 10:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.42%chance

192418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

921

Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033?

Feb 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76%chance

371383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

889

Will CGPGrey upload their brain into a computer before 2040?

Mar 24, 1:42 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.3%chance

371341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

983

862

Will Joe Biden ever be uploaded?

Sep 30, 10:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.19%chance

171065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

931

Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.9%chance

10562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

945

Once it becomes possible for the general populace to upload themselves, will at least 50% of them have done so within 2 years?

Nov 16, 12:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.24%chance

19356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

961

Will a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2040?

Dec 6, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.81%chance

9293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

65

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