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Prediction markets for Upload

Will Hello Internet upload a new episode by 2025?

Oct 5, 9:13 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.61%chance

237366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

861

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29%chance

716082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1090

Will YouTube begin restricting uploads by the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 8:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.71%chance

154786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3050

328

Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.77%chance

504373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1342

779

Will a full human mind be uploaded and running on a computer by 2030?

Feb 10, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.89%chance

402455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

922

Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMFeb 19, 10:59 PM

48.44%chance

422387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

309

Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033?

Feb 6, 10:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76%chance

371383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

889

Will CGPGrey upload their brain into a computer before 2040?

Mar 24, 1:42 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.92%chance

371291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

812

Will Joe Biden ever be uploaded?

Sep 30, 10:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.19%chance

171065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

931

Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.9%chance

10562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

945

Once it becomes possible for the general populace to upload themselves, will at least 50% of them have done so within 2 years?

Nov 16, 12:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.24%chance

19356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

961

Will Donald Trump ever be uploaded?

Sep 30, 10:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

13335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

960

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