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Prediction markets for uprising

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.1%chance

9858276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23237

879

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.15%chance

12822570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2791

261

Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Nov 5, 3:19 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

5.63%chance

172479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

962

Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Nov 4, 7:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.55%chance

202169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

865

Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028?

Apr 10, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.25%chance

222131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2536

333

Will China collapse before 2030

Dec 16, 3:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.2%chance

241898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

924

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.37%chance

281193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

958

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.3%chance

161101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

955

Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?

Sep 1, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

51052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

311019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

27

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.79%chance

31889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

915

Will there be a major uprising against Taliban government in Afghanistan by 2030?

Aug 17, 3:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

23749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

788

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