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Prediction markets for uprising

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

9039266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17739

1192

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.18%chance

12722514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

261

Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Nov 5, 3:19 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

5.63%chance

172479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

962

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.18%chance

372450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

917

11

Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Nov 4, 7:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.55%chance

202169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

865

Will China collapse before 2030

Dec 16, 3:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.2%chance

241898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

924

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

35

28

26

4

3

2

2

1

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.3%chance

161101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

955

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.8%chance

30869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

915

Will there be a major uprising against Taliban government in Afghanistan by 2030?

Aug 17, 3:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

23749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

788

Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028?

Apr 10, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.6%chance

20453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

889

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