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Prediction markets for Upstream

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

9.94%chance

1131643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45002

4770

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.58%chance

1721452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

35974

6720

Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

61.52%chance

816970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12644

7909

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.62%chance

810267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11603

8618

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11889

8411

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

52.89%chance

69260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10595

9438

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

66603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11826

8456

Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

37.86%chance

64494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12811

7806

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

51.59%chance

71364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10323

9687

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.22%chance

41124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10045

9959

Exit valuation of Upstream (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

280

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

62

16

16

6

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