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Prediction markets for US AI
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.86%chance
653719860
OptionVotes
5791
4783
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.7%chance
3134762
OptionVotes
25099
3984
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23%chance
17534195
OptionVotes
1440
971
What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?
Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
6721238
OptionProbability
43
28
12
7
5
2
2
2
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74.4%chance
25518756
OptionVotes
3256
1410
OptionVotes
1131
884
Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?
Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
82.75%chance
536094
OptionVotes
2079
227
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.68%chance
723580
OptionVotes
1031
959
OptionVotes
1492
288
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?
Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.61%chance
271389
OptionVotes
1167
885
If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?
Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37.91%chance
17389
OptionVotes
1068
862
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126