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Top stories

Shanghai AI Lab Launches InternVL3.5 Multimodal AI with 16% Better Reasoning, 4.05× Speed, Cascade RL, and LocalAI Integration

Shanghai AI Lab Launches InternVL3.5 Multimodal AI with 16% Better Reasoning, 4.05× Speed, Cascade RL, and LocalAI Integration

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for US AI

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

592573784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3255

1407

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

16933724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

1246

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.42%chance

25317819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2329

1841

What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6317815

OptionProbability

-20 to -10pp

-10 to 0pp

-30 to -20pp

<-30pp (strongly negative)

0 to +10pp

+10 to +20pp

+20 to +30pp

≥+30pp (strongly positive)

27

25

23

11

8

3

2

2

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

57.18%chance

568950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

865

Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?

Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.56%chance

526037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

240

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

45.3%chance

622817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

827

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.69%chance

321569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

363

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

15936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

1047

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

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