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Prediction markets for US Census

Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?

Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM

20.67%chance

8121828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

510

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.38%chance

54593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5479

1093

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?

Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM

64.6%chance

51548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Will Texas pass California in population by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:23 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

12.76%chance

231331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

931

Which 3 US cities will see the largest raw increase in population over the 20s, as judged by the 2030 census?

Aug 9, 4:11 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

7999

OptionProbability

Fort Worth, TX

San Antonio, TX

Phoenix, AZ

Austin, Texas

Charlotte, NC

Houston, TX

NYC, NY

Seattle, WA

Atlanta, Georgia

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Denver, CO

Boston, MA

Detroit, Michigan

Los Angeles, CA

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

Dallas, TX

San Jose, CA

San Diego, CA

Columbus, OH

San Francisco, CA

Chicago, IL

Port St. Lucie, FL

Huntsville, Alabama

Boise, ID

Albuquerque, NM

Fort Myers, Florida

Berkeley, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Cleveland, OH

St Louis, MO

Salt Lake City, UT

Tallahassee, Florida

74

73

68

47

46

30

26

20

16

16

16

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

11

10

10

9

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will Detroit have a higher population in 2030 than 2020?

Jan 4, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.92%chance

18836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

931

2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

Jan 22, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11572

OptionProbability

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

47

43

8

2

Will the US population exceed 500 million by 2050?

Oct 30, 2:15 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.59%chance

10381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Will the population of the USA decline in the year 2050?

May 3, 5:37 PMFeb 3, 4:59 AM

51.56%chance

17146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

987

Will Kansas City Missouri have a population of over 550 thousand people in 2030 as reported by the US Census?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.61%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

77

[Manifold demographics] What is your race (using US Census categories, feel free to leave comments for more)?

Mar 1, 3:46 AM

140

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