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Prediction markets for US CHIPS

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

298568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Which tariffs will Trump introduce in 2025?

Feb 19, 4:07 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

174748

OptionProbability

25% on autos

10% on autos

25% on steel

25% on aluminum

tariffs announced on April 2, 2025

84% on China

25% on non-energy goods from Canada

25% on goods from Mexico

25% on microcontrollers

25% on pharmaceuticals

100% on chips and semiconductors, excluding firms building in the US

20% globally

100

100

100

100

100

100

47

19

14

14

9

5

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

10.51%chance

294613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2320

700

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

Apr 20, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.92%chance

231887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

Will the US permit China to buy B200 chips before the end of 2025?

Aug 6, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.75%chance

51679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2313

432

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.72%chance

6541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

168

Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.44%chance

11186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

158

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

63

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2026)

Mar 17, 7:06 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

37.76%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

80

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2032)

Mar 17, 7:06 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

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