US CHIPS News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Anthropic IPO

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

Grok 5 will be released

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Google will outperform the S&P

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

My median ASI timelines will shorten

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

Anthropic will release an image/video model

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

An LLM will beat me at chess

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

SSI will release a product

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

OpenAI IPO

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Grok 6 will be released

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

SSI IPO

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

NO

YES

YES

NO

NO

YES

YES

NO

NO

Allied Coordination by 2030: There is allied coordination between key countries in the AI hardware supply chain on HEM development and/or deployment by 2030, targeting hardware security for either tamper-evident or tamper-proof HEMs.

Commercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030

Location Verification for US Export Controls by 2028: The US enacts location verification requirements for exported chips before 2028 (enforcement may not begin until afterward)

US-China Treaty Verification by 2030: Both the US and China sign an AI development treaty (potentially non-binding) involving HEMs by 2030

NO