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Prediction markets for US CHIPS

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

298568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

18.08%chance

263762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

835

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

Apr 20, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

171096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

972

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

51.73%chance

6522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2027?

Sep 20, 8:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.55%chance

8351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.78%chance

9265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

161

Will the US enact high-skilled immigration reform to help win the AI race against China?

Apr 7, 6:49 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

30.45%chance

13210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

97

Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.04%chance

10185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

160

Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

63

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

52.68%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

452

351

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2026)

Mar 17, 7:06 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

37.76%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

80

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2032)

Mar 17, 7:06 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

58.19%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

83

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