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Prediction markets for US Election Day

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

13.11%chance

218106647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15221

4753

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

8336949

OptionProbability

2026

2024

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?

Sep 11, 5:08 PMNov 4, 6:00 PM

2.51%chance

3517614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6230

161

Will Trump restrict porn?

Nov 7, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

14.06%chance

5812159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2472

405

Is Mojtaba Khamenei already dead?

Mar 11, 6:04 PMDec 31, 5:21 PM

5.14%chance

447865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4297

233

Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?

Oct 1, 2:28 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

11.98%chance

335680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

820

Will Dan J. Sullivan be on the ballot as a Republican for the US Senate Primary election in Alaska?

Jun 12, 7:33 AMJun 30, 8:00 PM

86.13%chance

114586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2445

481

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

Mar 15, 5:43 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

84.36%chance

213424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2323

431

Will national gas prices in the US average above $3.60

May 22, 4:46 PMOct 30, 4:00 PM

77.67%chance

272564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1865

536

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

162540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2601

385

Will SCOTUS vote to overturn Mississippi's mail-in voting law?

Mar 24, 5:34 PMDec 31, 6:33 PM

63.01%chance

10643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6151

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Never announces national elections

Other

March 15 - April 15, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

48

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

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