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Prediction markets for US Election Day

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

23.6%chance

20393232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9386

6003

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6121239

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

59

13

11

10

5

1

0

0

Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?

Sep 11, 5:08 PMNov 4, 6:00 PM

2.51%chance

3517614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6230

161

Will Israel or the United States launch airstrikes against Iran before the next Israeli election?

Jan 5, 9:31 PMOct 28, 6:59 AM

69.8%chance

7515359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

658

Will Trump restrict porn?

Nov 7, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

12%chance

5611942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

Mar 15, 5:43 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

84.36%chance

213424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2323

431

Which party's candidate will become US President after the election in 2028?

Dec 29, 7:18 PMOct 29, 6:59 AM

332167

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other outcome

59

41

1

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

15.92%chance

91655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2298

435

Will the person who is next elected US President for the first time be over 70?

Oct 1, 2:28 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

30.22%chance

201436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

751

Will any U.S. congress seat up for election in 2026 be decided by less than 0.25% of votes received?

Jun 6, 12:28 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

88.38%chance

4177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

37

Brazil 2026 Election: US congratulates Brazil’s 2026 election winner within 24 hours?

Jan 29, 3:47 PMOct 27, 11:59 PM

46.32%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

Forward Party runs a US presidential candidate in 2028?

Jan 5, 10:33 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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