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Prediction markets for US English

How many video game adaptations will be released in theaters in 2025?

Dec 19, 6:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

204485

OptionProbability

4 or more

3

2

0

1

96

3

1

0

0

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will the US Still Be Considered a Superpower by EOY 2040?

Dec 23, 2:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.93%chance

201449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

323

Major news report of ideological filtering of would-be resident in Praxis city project (before 2027)

Sep 15, 7:21 AMJan 1, 7:28 AM

72.55%chance

7789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

96

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

87.2%chance

8653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

473

174

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

What grade will I get on my TOEFL test? (Round 2)

Aug 4, 6:13 AMSep 1, 6:08 AM

2369

OptionProbability

110-115

>115

100-109

<100

50

31

10

9

Will Mexico pay for the wall?

Nov 26, 8:49 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

6.48%chance

8280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

380

26

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Major news report linking Praxis city project and (neo) Feudalism (before 2027)

Sep 14, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:28 AM

81.29%chance

494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

57

Will Mother 3 release in the US in English on a Nintendo console by 2032?

Sep 7, 8:23 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

40%chance

241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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