US Independence Day News

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.61%chance

65770

OptionVotes

YES

12116

9018

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.76%chance

43511

OptionVotes

YES

12331

8645

Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029?

Jan 5, 4:17 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

152759

OptionProbability

Iran

Other

Cuba

Other Again

Mexico

Venezuela

Panama

North Korea

Iceland

Colombia

Denmark

Canada

100

Trump meets Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Aug 20, 4:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.9%chance

302429

OptionVotes

YES

2071

483

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3475

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will Tesla's steering-wheel-less Cybercab give rides to the public in Dallas by November 30, 2026?

Oct 13, 1:46 AMDec 5, 11:59 PM

78.81%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

199

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Sep 13, 11:16 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

262

OptionProbability

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)

IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)

US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030

When will US, Russian and Ukrainian delegations next hold trilateral talks in person? (Kremlin says ~Nov 10, Abu Dhabi)

Oct 31, 9:39 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

November 10–15

Not by November 30

November 16–30

November 1–9

US Independence Day News

Prediction markets for US Independence Day

Prediction markets for US Independence Day

Prediction markets for US Independence Day

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

Which nations will the US stage military operations in before January 20th 2029?

Trump meets Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Will Tesla's steering-wheel-less Cybercab give rides to the public in Dallas by November 30, 2026?

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

When will US, Russian and Ukrainian delegations next hold trilateral talks in person? (Kremlin says ~Nov 10, Abu Dhabi)

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