OptionProbability
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The US launches airstrikes
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
Iran strikes US bases
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
US ground troops enter Iran
75
61
52
51
50
48
25
23
11
10
Other
Iran
Cuba
Venezuela
Other Again
Mexico
Panama
Denmark
Iceland
North Korea
Colombia
Canada
100
72
58
55
53
39
34
27
4
