OptionProbability
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
Iran strikes US bases
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
The US launches airstrikes
Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)
The Strait of Hormuz is mined
Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran
Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
US ground troops enter Iran
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed
There is a full week without airstrikes or other notable combat in March
100
51
21
15
12
2
Iran
Other
Cuba
Other Again
Venezuela
Mexico
Panama
North Korea
Iceland
Colombia
Denmark
Canada
61
55
53
43
27
18
14
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1051
819
194
52
