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Prediction markets for US Presidential campaign

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

192919

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Mark Kelly

Jon Ossoff

Andy Beshear

Ruben Gallego

Gretchen Whitmer

Ro Khanna

Wes Moore

JB Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Chris Van Hollen

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Josh Green

Rahm Emanuel

75

48

38

38

32

27

27

27

24

20

20

16

15

12

10

8

8

5

4

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.93%chance

262009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

965

961

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.57%chance

10523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US be transferred to the Trump presidential library (or similar) by 2029?

May 14, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

14370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6151

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Never announces national elections

Other

March 15 - April 15, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

48

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

Will Trump withdraw the US from the USMCA before the end of his second term?

Nov 8, 3:26 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

7110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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