USELESS News

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

4-JIKA COMES BACK AND BEATS SHANKS

6-Kid does his best to re enter the race to the one piece(invalid if number 3 happens)

5-Kid gives up

1-Useless Mid is dead

2-Joins another faction(BB, revs, cross guild, etc)

7-Other

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

YES

YES

YES

[ 3 ; 6 [

[ 9 ; 12 [

0

∞

[ 6 ; 9 [

[ 12 ; 15 [

[ 1 ; 3 [

[ 15 ; 18 [

[ 21 ; +∞ [

Exists before start of 2035

Exists before start of 2030

Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer

Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Is judged to have caused a minor cybersecurity incident at least as bad as the wiki messageboard before start of 2029

Exists before start of 2028

conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI

Is judged to have caused a major cybersecurity incident at least as bad as the huggingface hack before start of 2029

Makes money mostly legally for the first 2 months (even accounting for illegal agents probably being hidden)

Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do

A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved

Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

YES

NO

no

yes

NO