OptionVotes
NO
YES
328
57
OptionProbability
New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo
A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)
Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)
Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo
New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo
Other
33
20
14
11
195
51
134
75
