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Prediction markets for Utilities

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.92%chance

507161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4190

635

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.33%chance

224894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4383

592

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.86%chance

122079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

283

If nuclear weapons are utilized in the India Pakistan conflict, which country will pull the trigger first.

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 7:43 PM

101974

OptionProbability

Pakistan

India

79

21

What will be the maximum achievable flop utilization on the next generation of Nvidia server chips?

Sep 22, 6:22 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

371480

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

90-100%

80-90%

50-60%

40-50%

<30%

30-40%

32

30

13

10

8

6

1

1

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.36%chance

271340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

848

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Feb 21, 8:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10%chance

171308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

972

Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.69%chance

11609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

111

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.52%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2026?

Feb 14, 3:41 AMMay 1, 3:59 AM

6393

OptionProbability

30 GW to 45 GW

45 GW to 60 GW

<30 GW

60 GW to 75 GW

>75 GW

43

21

16

11

9

Will ACL continue to utilize ARR as the sole method of submission in 2025?

Jan 4, 4:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.74%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

92

Will Ann Arbor Michigan have a municipal electric utility by the end of 2029?

Dec 1, 1:28 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

65%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

57

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