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Prediction markets for V1

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

7918625

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1946

27

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23584

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

27

21

21

16

13

1

1

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Apple halves weight of Vision Pro by 2030

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.53%chance

512258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

984

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5210

OptionProbability

Elias Iagnemma

Other

Aidan Roberts

Hamish McArthur

Will Bosi

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

60

11

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]

Feb 25, 2:05 PMFeb 27, 9:25 PM

18.73%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

57

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 26, 2:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.98%chance

469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

935

Will a patch make all original AOE2/AoK:TC v1.0c recorded games+campaigns compatible with AOE2:DE by EOY 2027?

Dec 23, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v1

Sep 4, 9:58 PM

80

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