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Prediction markets for V1

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83%chance

5310298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1690

76

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72703

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

41

37

4

4

4

4

4

2

Apple halves weight of Vision Pro by 2030

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.53%chance

512258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

984

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.6%chance

221642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

9577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

49

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6361

OptionProbability

Other

Elias Iagnemma

Aidan Roberts

Will Bosi

Hamish McArthur

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

30

20

7

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]

Feb 25, 2:05 PMFeb 27, 9:25 PM

18.73%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

57

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 26, 2:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.98%chance

469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

935

Will the second ascentionist of Elias Iagnemma's Exodia agree with the V18 (9A+) grade?

May 31, 7:09 AMMay 31, 7:06 AM

50.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

Will a patch make all original AOE2/AoK:TC v1.0c recorded games+campaigns compatible with AOE2:DE by EOY 2027?

Dec 23, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v1

Sep 4, 9:58 PM

80

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