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Prediction markets for V1

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3%chance

295873528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59387

2090

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.14%chance

8152182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2514

29

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

6914171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

33

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.67%chance

396500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1617

91

Grokipedia v1 before Dec 15?

Oct 29, 5:19 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

13.61%chance

134920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2520

397

Apple halves weight of Vision Pro by 2030

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.53%chance

512258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

984

Will v18 be climbing befor 2026

Jun 22, 10:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.42%chance

5326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

326

31

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5200

OptionProbability

Elias Iagnemma

Other

Aidan Roberts

Hamish McArthur

Will Bosi

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

60

11

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]

Feb 25, 2:05 PMFeb 27, 9:25 PM

18.73%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

57

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will a patch make all original AOE2/AoK:TC v1.0c recorded games+campaigns compatible with AOE2:DE by EOY 2027?

Dec 23, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v1

Sep 4, 9:58 PM

80

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