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Prediction markets for V1

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.89%chance

286686677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22659

4871

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.37%chance

7646712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2175

43

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.46%chance

6211825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1898

85

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.24%chance

346305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1627

88

Apple halves weight of Vision Pro by 2030

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.53%chance

512258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

984

Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]

Feb 25, 2:05 PMFeb 27, 9:25 PM

18.73%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

57

Entity Framework Core v11 contains SQL MERGE support?

Jul 5, 4:31 PMNov 30, 5:31 PM

29%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will v18 be climbing befor 2026

Jun 22, 10:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.85%chance

476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

572

OptionProbability

Other

Aidan Roberts

Hamish McArthur

Will Bosi

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Elias Iagnemma

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

27

12

8

7

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will there be a new proposed V18/9a+ outdoor boulder in 2025?

Feb 3, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.13%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will a patch make all original AOE2/AoK:TC v1.0c recorded games+campaigns compatible with AOE2:DE by EOY 2027?

Dec 23, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v1

Sep 4, 9:58 PM

80

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