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Prediction markets for V2

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

Dec 20, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5320007

OptionProbability

>06h

>08h

>10h

>12h

>14h

>16h

>18h

>20h

>19h

>21h

>22h

>24h

>26h

>28h

>30h

>32h

>36h

>38h

>40h

>45h

>50h

>55h

>60h

>70h

>80h

>90h

>99h

>100h

100

100

100

100

100

99

98

97

97

96

94

92

91

89

88

82

76

73

66

61

57

55

49

41

38

33

30

10

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

8519324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1921

50

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

392039

OptionProbability

2027-2029

2025-2026

2030-2049

2023-2024

44

41

13

2

[v2] GPT 5.6 release date?

Jun 23, 4:32 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

111760

OptionProbability

By July 31st

By July 24th

By July 17th

By July 10th

93

84

82

52

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

V2 British Manifold Users: Brexit Opinion Poll

Feb 4, 10:43 AM

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v2

Sep 4, 11:19 PM

80

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