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Prediction markets for V2

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

9822000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1962

18

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83%chance

5310298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1690

76

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72703

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

41

37

4

4

4

4

4

2

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

402049

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2029

2030-2049

2023-2024

51

36

11

2

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.6%chance

221642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM

3603

OptionProbability

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30

No significant change — 17–21

Diverge — ≤ 16

53

33

14

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

9577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

49

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v2

Sep 4, 11:19 PM

80

V2 British Manifold Users: Brexit Opinion Poll

Feb 4, 10:43 AM

50

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