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Prediction markets for V2

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.53%chance

5210288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

79

Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026

Jun 4, 5:29 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

174264

OptionProbability

≥4h

≥6h

≥8h

≥10h

≥12h

≥14h

≥16h

≥18h

60

60

46

33

19

11

4

3

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Best METR 80% Time Horizon in 2026

Jun 4, 5:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111877

OptionProbability

≥6h

≥8h

≥10h

≥12h

≥14h

≥16h

≥18h

≥20h

≥25h

≥30h

≥35h

≥40h

97

93

79

71

59

50

43

37

16

12

10

5

Will Toronto bike lanes be removed due to Doug Ford? [v2]

Aug 17, 3:21 PMAug 14, 4:00 AM

68.32%chance

81861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

681

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM

3603

OptionProbability

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30

No significant change — 17–21

Diverge — ≤ 16

53

33

14

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v2

Sep 4, 11:19 PM

80

V2 British Manifold Users: Brexit Opinion Poll

Feb 4, 10:43 AM

50

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