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Prediction markets for V2

When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship?

Feb 24, 2:32 PMJun 1, 1:59 PM

1618687

OptionProbability

Before June 2026

Before June

Before August

Before October

Before 2025

Before July 2025

Before January 2026

Before April 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before March 2026

95

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.61%chance

7818030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1941

31

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Sep 30, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

382026

OptionProbability

2027-2029

2025-2026

2030-2049

2023-2024

49

37

12

2

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3305

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

19

16

12

12

12

10

10

10

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 12, 2:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.82%chance

2269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

347

V2 British Manifold Users: Brexit Opinion Poll

Feb 4, 10:43 AM

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v2

Sep 4, 11:19 PM

80

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