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Prediction markets for V2

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?

Oct 11, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.43%chance

7946869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1918

62

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

6612436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

40

Will the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) experience major riots in 2025, similar to 2024? (V2)

Jun 11, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

1711952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5686

176

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.67%chance

396500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1617

91

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 9, 1:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.35%chance

4360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

353

By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2?

Apr 23, 12:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

57.11%chance

20319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

988

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

"The Surge": When will Ethereum support 150 Uniswap v2 swaps / average block?

Dec 12, 2:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

179

OptionProbability

By 2026-01-01

By 2025-11-01

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2025-01-01

76

50

0

0

0

V2 British Manifold Users: Brexit Opinion Poll

Feb 4, 10:43 AM

50

Which option do you prefer? (Death vs suffering) v2

Sep 4, 11:19 PM

80

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