Validated News

Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?

Apr 16, 1:47 PMApr 23, 8:59 PM

8.16%chance

3312479

OptionVotes

YES

1509

893

Which common health advice is actually valid?

Oct 19, 8:22 AMDec 20, 9:17 AM

262707

OptionProbability

Doing at least 30 minute exercise daily is important

Honey as antimicrobial

Typical blue light from phones before sleep worsens sleep quality noticeably

Reduced salt intake increases cardiac health for people without a preexisting condition

Flossing is very important for average person

Listen to music to help with stress

Maintaining one correct posture when sitting is important

Will String Theory have experimental validation by 2050?

Apr 13, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.91%chance

291920

OptionVotes

YES

1871

829

Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?

Dec 22, 10:11 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

22.09%chance

16934

OptionVotes

YES

188

Valid proof of new infinite family of book Ramsey numbers R(B_{n-1}, B_n) = 4n-1 (FrontierMath Open problems benchmark)?

Mar 28, 9:14 PMJan 1, 10:00 PM

67%chance

5824

OptionVotes

YES

1425

702

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Jul 25, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.6%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

185

Validation: Do universities investing in technology transfer via patenting lose money?

Sep 14, 8:19 PMJan 1, 8:36 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Published results based on paper's methodology for at least one additional US research university

"Vast majority" (>=80%) of US research universities show strongly negative (<=-50%) tech transfer via patenting ROI

Tech transfer via patenting ROI is positive across all US research universities

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.66%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

118

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

Will the simulation theory ever be validated?

Dec 16, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Will "Downstream applications as validation of inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 16, 4:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

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Prediction markets for Validated

Prediction markets for Validated

Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?

Which common health advice is actually valid?

Will String Theory have experimental validation by 2050?

Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?

Valid proof of new infinite family of book Ramsey numbers R(B_{n-1}, B_n) = 4n-1 (FrontierMath Open problems benchmark)?

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Validation: Do universities investing in technology transfer via patenting lose money?

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Will the simulation theory ever be validated?

Will "Downstream applications as validation of inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

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