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Validator News

Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?

Apr 16, 1:47 PMApr 23, 8:59 PM

8.31%chance

3212454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

895

Who will successfully convince @Krantz that his solution to alignment of ASI isn't valid?

Jul 31, 6:33 PMJan 1, 7:17 PM

92447

OptionProbability

@robm

Nobody

Other

Rob Miles

Aella

Cat Woods

Allison Duettmann

Sarah Constantin

Liron Shapira

Zvi Mowshowitz

Nathan Young

Holly Elmore

Rosie Campbell

Agnes Callard

Roman Yampolskiy

Robin Hanson

Nate Soares

Daniel Hillis

Ben Goertzle

Max Tegmark

Connor Leahy

George Hotz

Nathan Labenz

Noam Brown

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Amanda Askell

Dan Faggela

24

14

8

7

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will String Theory have experimental validation by 2050?

Apr 13, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.64%chance

281915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

824

Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?

Dec 22, 10:11 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

44.51%chance

12644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics

Jan 22, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

3175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Valid argument for high p(doom) in @EliezerYudkowsky's upcoming book "If Anyone Builds, Everyone Dies"?

Jun 20, 6:06 PMDec 31, 7:05 PM

33.61%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.66%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will RISK ever be insolvent/not pay out a valid insurance policy due to liquidity reasons by 2028?

Jul 25, 12:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.08%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

Will the simulation theory ever be validated?

Dec 16, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

25

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

When someone posts a comment on Manifold, do you trust its validity?

Dec 30, 6:34 PM

270

Is Robert Hur's report on Biden's cognitive state valid or a politicized attack?

Feb 9, 3:14 PM

460

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