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Prediction markets for Value

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Mar 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.54%chance

1963934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17573

5691

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

335

When will Java have Value Classes/Value Types?

Jun 22, 6:51 AMJun 29, 3:59 PM

937554

OptionProbability

December 31, 2027

December 31, 2026

Never

December 31, 2025

December 31, 2024

67

48

17

2

0

Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?

Jan 30, 4:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.12%chance

828373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1976

671

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.02%chance

163631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11408

8833

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.11%chance

272291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

983

Will Twitter be valued at >100B?

Nov 5, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23%chance

291318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

829

Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?

Nov 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.41%chance

191013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

877

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

Dec 20, 3:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.2%chance

5582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2652

1567

Will Artificial Super Intelligence lock in values humans generally come to disagree with?

Aug 20, 9:40 AMJan 20, 10:37 AM

51.28%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

995

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