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Value Area News
Prediction markets for Value Area
Prediction markets for Value Area
Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:49 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
19.05%
chance
14
5589
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7177
3289
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%
chance
31
1936
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1629
626
Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30
Jun 22, 3:26 PM
Jun 22, 10:59 PM
24.72%
chance
17
1206
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1745
573
Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?
Feb 17, 3:00 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
41.59%
chance
30
1040
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1146
838
Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?
Jan 12, 5:51 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
21.69%
chance
25
477
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1277
880
Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:11 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
29.01%
chance
6
69
Option
Votes
YES
NO
242
153
Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?
Feb 27, 11:52 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
27.59%
chance
2
62
Option
Votes
YES
NO
162
62
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?
Nov 25, 12:39 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
27.2%
chance
5
45
Option
Votes
YES
NO
135
64
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