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Value Area News

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.09%chance

2016004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9006

1009

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124401

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

70

8

7

6

3

2

2

2

How much will the US government spend on Greenland in 2026?

Jan 14, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

153528

OptionProbability

$0 - $1 billion

$251 billion - $500 billion

$501 billion - $750 billion

$751 billion - $1 trillion

$1.01 billion - $100 billion

$101 billion - $250 billion

Other

90

3

2

2

1

1

1

Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30

Jun 22, 3:26 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

11.53%chance

202501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

361

Will the US fake GDP statistics by the end of 2026?

Dec 25, 9:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.59%chance

312127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

955

344

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

607

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.81%chance

311250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

711

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jul 2, 12:12 AMDec 4, 1:25 PM

12.77%chance

12356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

49

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

43

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

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