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Prediction markets for Variety

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.77%chance

611543937

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6325

661

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.26%chance

334276812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7022

681

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

26.58%chance

336171236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

989

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50%chance

341138327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

782

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Nov 28, 10:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58%chance

23866393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1358

584

Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?

Jun 24, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.27%chance

3733958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19453

13614

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.11%chance

19526223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

379

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will "Varieties Of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.42%chance

4372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

971

Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?

May 28, 5:22 PM

30

Which cabbage variety do you prefer: green or red cabbage?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

70

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