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Prediction markets for Variety

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49%chance

563470447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3111

2039

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3%chance

312235021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5550

721

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

16.86%chance

317161571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1527

920

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

37.81%chance

321132600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1284

1087

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.09%chance

274100650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

965

Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?

Jun 24, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.32%chance

3532173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17781

14066

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73%chance

19425921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1724

460

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will "Varieties Of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.42%chance

4372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

971

Which cabbage variety do you prefer: green or red cabbage?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

70

Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?

May 28, 5:22 PM

30

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