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Prediction markets for Variety

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.47%chance

493409147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2991

2170

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.3%chance

299224934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4103

774

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

10.03%chance

288149072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

792

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31.75%chance

292113407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

1172

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.14%chance

23290317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

930

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.05%chance

28828786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3006

2185

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

19025144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

598

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

By 2028, AI can transcribe human speech with a variety of accents in a noisy environment as well as a typical human can

Jan 5, 10:55 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

89.25%chance

131018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

455

147

Will "Varieties Of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 8:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.42%chance

4372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

971

Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?

May 28, 5:22 PM

30

Which cabbage variety do you prefer: green or red cabbage?

Oct 1, 4:00 AM

60

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