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Prediction markets for Vault

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.35%chance

444648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

753

Who will be victorious in the second EU5 campaign?

Feb 24, 1:28 PMJun 14, 12:22 PM

113931

OptionProbability

Kevin - Imperial Jerusalemite Order

Matt - Serbian Order

Olly - Burgandy

Malte - Lower Bavaria / Holy Roman Emperor

Mark - Denmark

Sheb - Tuscany

Michael - Alessandria

Pete - Schröders Bank

Callum - Prussia

Tom - Farmers Mutual

Javi - Paderborn

Other

34

25

15

9

5

5

4

3

1

0

0

0

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2065

484

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record? (6.30m-6.40m+)

Sep 16, 12:26 AMJan 2, 1:26 AM

5414

OptionProbability

6.35

6.34

6.40 or greater

6.36

6.32

6.33

6.37

6.31

6.38

6.39

6.30 (world record at time of market creation)

13

12

12

11

10

10

9

8

8

6

1

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

BIFI (Beefy Finance) reaches 1000 before March 31?

Jan 10, 7:11 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

8.89%chance

4290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

Exit valuation of VaultPay (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

60

14

14

11

Which 1989 TV vault track is the best?

Oct 27, 5:09 AM

50

Quroe's Mana Vault

Nov 24, 12:44 AM

00

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