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Vault News

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

964

918

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.44%chance

262119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2176

460

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Debut (Taylor's Version) prop bets

Jul 23, 4:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2818

OptionProbability

It debuts at #1 on the Billboard 200

Pitchfork rates it 5.0 or higher

Metacritic rating is 60 or higher after a week

Metacritic rating is 70 or higher after a week

Jack Antonoff has at least one production credit

Aaron Dessner has at least one production credit

Pitchfork rates it higher than the original (>6.7)

More than six vault tracks are included

Pitchfork rates it 7.5 or higher

The album is released on 23 October 2026

A piano version of the album is also released

It sweeps the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100

A pop version of the album is also released

The album is announced on 7 August 2026

80

80

80

80

80

80

69

63

60

50

39

37

31

0

How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record? (6.30m-6.40m+)

Sep 16, 12:26 AMJan 2, 1:26 AM

7766

OptionProbability

6.40 or greater

6.39

6.38

6.37

6.34

6.35

6.33

6.36

6.32

6.31

6.30 (world record at time of market creation)

33

12

11

9

7

7

6

6

4

3

2

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

62.04%chance

9328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

182

Will more central banks move their gold reserves out of the US?

Sep 15, 7:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

79

Exit valuation of VaultPay (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

60

14

14

11

Which 1989 TV vault track is the best?

Oct 27, 5:09 AM

50

Quroe's Mana Vault

Nov 24, 12:44 AM

00

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