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Trump Presses Contractors, Targets February Flight on Qatar-Gifted Air Force One

4 days ago

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

24.25%chance

73163495

OptionVotes

YES

111734

28057

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Sep 8, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4413064

OptionProbability

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

Dec 22, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.83%chance

578939

OptionVotes

YES

1455

514

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

13.91%chance

283077

OptionVotes

YES

2488

402

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.8%chance

9958

OptionVotes

YES

1535

651

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.82%chance

17695

OptionVotes

YES

1026

899

What will be the next major event for Character.ai?

Jan 16, 3:00 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14452

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

IPO

None of these by 2030

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

YES

1067

956

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.48%chance

155

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

126

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM

47.83%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

256

236

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Jul 29, 2025
Jul 29, 2025
US Domestic Policy
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Trump Presses Contractors, Targets February Flight on Qatar-Gifted Air Force One
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Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

What will be the next major event for Character.ai?

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

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