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Prediction markets for Venus

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

666463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

1047

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2045?

Oct 20, 11:04 AMJan 5, 10:59 PM

20.1%chance

395523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

947

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2031?

Aug 29, 4:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.61%chance

395499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2351

845

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 7:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

5.26%chance

235078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3834

563

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2040?

Oct 19, 3:37 PMJan 15, 10:59 PM

13.48%chance

383602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

908

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2065?

Dec 18, 12:22 PMJan 8, 10:59 PM

49.11%chance

322416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

810

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.02%chance

292140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

895

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

46.2%chance

271826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

596

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

39%chance

321745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

750

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2070?

Dec 19, 12:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58.82%chance

181454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

716

By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?

Sep 29, 8:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

40%chance

15553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

799

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

11259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

869

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