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Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.03%chance

798738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

746

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.1%chance

207320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

405

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.88%chance

341837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

982

965

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

Katie Miller has child fathered by Elon Musk?

May 29, 2:53 AMJan 1, 3:51 AM

21.94%chance

4594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

914

GIMPS discovers new Mersenne prime by EOY 2025?

May 22, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

28

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

134

Will Chris Chan have a son?

Nov 25, 5:39 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

10.41%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Another Aella gangbang fluffer engaged this year?

Jun 5, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.95%chance

7215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?

Jun 20, 6:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.69%chance

9173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

145

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