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Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.81%chance

218140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2148

466

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.7%chance

93105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2085

480

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

931

Will Jesus return on November 25 2026

Jun 8, 10:58 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

1%chance

71286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Katie Miller has child fathered by Elon Musk?

May 29, 2:53 AMJan 1, 3:51 AM

4.94%chance

5844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

23

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

918

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

914

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

Will someone from Manifold Markets join me on OpenChat by 0ctober 30, 2026 (10/30/26)?

Jun 23, 7:30 PMOct 29, 11:59 PM

52.45%chance

430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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