Verifiable Internet News

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.97%chance

808792

OptionVotes

YES

1176

716

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.81%chance

218140

OptionVotes

YES

2148

466

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Jan 11, 12:53 PMJan 12, 2:59 AM

467524

OptionProbability

40000+

20000-39999

6000-9999

10000-19999

3000 - 5999

0 - 1999

2000- 2999

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.7%chance

93105

OptionVotes

YES

2085

480

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

YES

1621

617

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

YES

1047

931

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

181515

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

1144

962

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

YES

1129

914

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

YES

416

404

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Mar 1, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

9291

OptionVotes

YES

156

Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026?

Mar 13, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

12238

OptionVotes

YES

217

Verifiable Internet News

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Will a new mersenne prime be found in 2026?

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