Verifiable Internet News

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.76%chance

2311205

OptionVotes

YES

3040

329

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.53%chance

356596

OptionVotes

YES

11161

8960

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

93855

OptionVotes

YES

2835

353

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

YES

1621

617

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202167

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.86%chance

371969

OptionVotes

YES

1085

902

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.69%chance

71235

OptionVotes

YES

2166

824

Will anyone on any prediction market betting before 2030 be revealed to be a time traveler before 2060

Oct 16, 3:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.66%chance

9773

OptionVotes

YES

136

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

1144

962

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

YES

1129

914

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

YES

416

404

Verifiable Internet News

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Will anyone on any prediction market betting before 2030 be revealed to be a time traveler before 2060

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

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