Verifiable Internet News

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.97%chance

808792

OptionVotes

YES

1176

716

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.03%chance

217990

OptionVotes

YES

1998

500

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.7%chance

93105

OptionVotes

YES

2085

480

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

YES

1621

617

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

YES

1047

931

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161494

OptionProbability

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

Katie Miller has child fathered by Elon Musk?

May 29, 2:53 AMJan 1, 3:51 AM

4.94%chance

5844

OptionVotes

YES

439

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

1144

962

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

YES

1129

914

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Mar 1, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

6269

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?

Jun 20, 6:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.69%chance

9173

OptionVotes

YES

250

145

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

Mar 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2026

2027

2028

Verifiable Internet News

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Katie Miller has child fathered by Elon Musk?

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Will CGP Grey return to Cortex podcast before 2027?

Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

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