Verifiable Internet News

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.81%chance

218140

OptionVotes

YES

2148

466

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Feb 4, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.06%chance

93855

OptionVotes

YES

2835

353

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

YES

1621

617

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202003

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

YES

1047

931

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

71135

OptionVotes

YES

2066

834

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

1144

962

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

YES

1129

914

what will SpaceX's revenue be for FY 2027?

May 21, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2307

OptionProbability

$25 billion to $30 billion

$35 billion to $40 billion

$20 billion to $25 billion

$30 billion to $35 billion

$40 billion to $45 billion

$45 billion to $50 billion

$50 billion to $60 billion

$15 billion to $20 billion

$60 billion to $75 billion

$75 billion to $100 billion

Less than $15 billion

More than $100 billion

Other

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

374

134

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

Mar 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2026

2027

2028

Verifiable Internet News

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Will Googly (the Juice WRLD song leaker), be arrested in 2026?

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

what will SpaceX's revenue be for FY 2027?

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

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