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Prediction markets for Verifiable Internet

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

86394795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5595

161

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.93%chance

7428716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3870

423

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50.43%chance

778573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

876

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Dec 4, 4:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25%chance

196916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.36%chance

341338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

737

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

Will the Number of IoT Devices Really Triple Between 2020 and 2030?

Apr 19, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.26%chance

18414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

914

Katie Miller has child fathered by Elon Musk?

May 29, 2:53 AMJan 1, 3:51 AM

14.5%chance

4340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Wearable self-driving car safety dongle with 1m users by end of 2030

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.58%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

374

134

Another Aella gangbang fluffer engaged this year?

Jun 5, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.55%chance

6200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will Chris Chan have a son?

Nov 25, 5:39 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

48.36%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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