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Prediction markets for Verifications

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

15.44%chance

19133145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2332

439

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.42%chance

238056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5412

3201

Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court?

Aug 10, 10:18 AMAug 17, 3:59 AM

93.66%chance

22931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

443

15

iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos

Jan 12, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92%chance

5516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

77

Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027?

Jul 25, 5:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

9406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

317

If Discord rolls out global age verification requirements, will the age verification data be breached in 2026?

Feb 11, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

8342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will the Identity Verification market have grown faster than Digital Payments by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.71%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

80

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

Should we allow questions where both the answer is entirely up to the question asker, and verification is impossible?

Sep 17, 6:53 PM

460

Should Manifold require KYC / age verification to allow users under 16, for children’s protection?

Dec 13, 6:41 PMJan 13, 9:59 PM

160

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