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Prediction markets for Verifications

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

6.83%chance

19234374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3706

281

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

279659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5151

4526

iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos

Jan 12, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92%chance

5516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

77

Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027?

Jul 25, 5:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.06%chance

12505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.2%chance

10421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

271

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Google's age verification system before 2027?

Jun 30, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.12%chance

9178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to YouTube's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 14, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.16%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to the age verification system of ANY OS before 3 July 2028?

May 26, 2:28 PMJul 2, 11:59 PM

62.62%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will the Identity Verification market have grown faster than Digital Payments by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.71%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

80

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 10, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

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