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Prediction markets for Verifications

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

16.02%chance

19133310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

449

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.71%chance

10419201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2133

685

Will the ID verification requirement for new users be reversed?

Apr 9, 4:21 AMJul 10, 3:59 AM

21%chance

9311610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

516

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

258406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5393

3279

Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court?

Aug 10, 10:18 AMAug 17, 3:59 AM

93.66%chance

22931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

443

15

iPhones Will Introduce Authenticity Verification for Photos and Videos

Jan 12, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92%chance

5516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

77

Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027?

Jul 25, 5:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.63%chance

11495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

If Discord rolls out global age verification requirements, will the age verification data be breached in 2026?

Feb 11, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

9423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 29, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the Identity Verification market have grown faster than Digital Payments by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.71%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

80

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 10, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

Will Anthropic open applications for its Cyber Verification Program before July 1, 2026?

Apr 15, 9:13 AMJul 2, 4:30 AM

72.97%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

74

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