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Verifications News

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

7.46%chance

19334750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3532

294

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.47%chance

10719653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

727

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

3013200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8798

4686

Will a public DNA verification, if conducted, prove that Ahmed Nur Said Elmi is Ilhan Omar's brother?

Oct 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.59%chance

13665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

826

Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031?

Jan 20, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.09%chance

12510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

142

Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027?

Jul 25, 5:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.06%chance

12505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 29, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.57%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to YouTube's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 14, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.16%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 10, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.3%chance

877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

75

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to the age verification system of ANY OS before 3 July 2028?

May 26, 2:28 PMJul 2, 11:59 PM

62.62%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will the Identity Verification market have grown faster than Digital Payments by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.71%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

80

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

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