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Prediction markets for Verified

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4848234

OptionProbability

85% - 90%

75% - 85%

90% - 100%

70% - 75%

53% - 60%

60% - 70%

42

34

19

3

1

1

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1937355

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

Jan 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

28.16%chance

373045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

853

Will DOGE inspect Fort Knox to verify the presence of the 4,580 tons of US gold by the end of 2025?

Feb 17, 12:41 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

16.32%chance

172677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2264

442

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

22.81%chance

131946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4567

2276

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

341323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

747

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?

Feb 24, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

351157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

758

Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026?

Nov 17, 3:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.75%chance

61147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

762

Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?

Feb 4, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.05%chance

12791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1642

609

Will a 3000 lb pumpkin be grown and verified by the end of 2025?

Oct 25, 12:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.3%chance

22777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

888

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.81%chance

16361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

964

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

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