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Prediction markets for Verified

Millennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

97.52%chance

267739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5120

87

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

Jan 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

18.46%chance

413671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

698

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

18.68%chance

173150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5349

2072

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?

Feb 24, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.26%chance

422799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

850

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.86%chance

371969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

902

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

46.32%chance

14846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

929

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.16%chance

18475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

853

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.54%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.84%chance

13438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

968

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

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