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Prediction markets for Verified

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5877843

OptionProbability

75% - 85%

85% - 90%

90% - 100%

53% - 60%

60% - 70%

70% - 75%

80

14

4

0

0

0

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3849969

OptionProbability

70 - 84%

85% - 95%

Above 95%

Below 70%

81

16

2

1

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

Jan 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

29.78%chance

383070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

878

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

23.74%chance

142221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4420

2320

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?

Feb 24, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

381967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

774

Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?

Feb 4, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.6%chance

161910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2761

362

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.88%chance

341837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

982

965

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.95%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

890

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.59%chance

12435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

981

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

53.34%chance

4260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

935

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

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