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Prediction markets for Verified

In what year will a human complete an official, verified marathon in under two hours?

Dec 2, 7:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

277256

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2030 or later

2026

2029

2025

2024

31

24

19

15

6

4

1

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

Jan 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

29.78%chance

383070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

878

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

23.74%chance

142221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4420

2320

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?

Feb 24, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

392040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

774

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.93%chance

351892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

954

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

For 17+ verified people in 17+ experiences: Thousands of adults will meet for the first time in Roblox dating experience

Sep 10, 3:01 PMSep 8, 3:00 PM

49.9%chance

5496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

99

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.95%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

890

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.59%chance

12435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

981

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

48.51%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

902

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