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Prediction markets for Verified

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

Jan 3, 8:18 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

29.78%chance

383070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

878

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.79%chance

152721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4920

2177

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?

Feb 24, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

392040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

774

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

931

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.63%chance

551233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

999

For 17+ verified people in 17+ experiences: Thousands of adults will meet for the first time in Roblox dating experience

Sep 10, 3:01 PMSep 8, 3:00 PM

52%chance

7510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

94

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.95%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

890

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

51.12%chance

10441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

978

Will the ESRB start using facial recognition to verify age before 2030?

Aug 12, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.84%chance

13438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

968

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

902

Will "AIs can now often do massive easy-to-verify S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 6, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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