Verified Organization News

Obama arrested in 2025?

Jul 21, 2:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.47%chance

3525670

OptionVotes

YES

5898

2230

Another MechaHitler in one month?

Jul 10, 12:44 PMOct 10, 12:39 PM

18.18%chance

17217779

OptionVotes

YES

2122

471

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.86%chance

292454

OptionVotes

YES

1281

781

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

461421

OptionProbability

has an official twitter feed

has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk

endorses a republican candidate (primary or general)

registered with the FEC

runs a candidate in a state or local election

is an organization with verified full time employees

takes donations

runs a candidate in a federal election

endorses a democrat candidate (primary or general)

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

181414

OptionVotes

YES

1241

941

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Putin die when?

Jul 23, 8:54 AMJul 24, 8:52 AM

111019

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.57%chance

17870

OptionVotes

YES

1375

815

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5426

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

Will anyone be prosecuted relating to the Grenfell Tower disaster before 01/01/2027?

Sep 4, 11:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.95%chance

5165

OptionVotes

YES

149

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 28th State Senate district

Jun 16, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (incumbent)

Other

Verified Organization News

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Obama arrested in 2025?

Another MechaHitler in one month?

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Putin die when?

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Will anyone be prosecuted relating to the Grenfell Tower disaster before 01/01/2027?

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 28th State Senate district

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