Verified Organization News

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

24.39%chance

313953

OptionVotes

YES

1761

568

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

512479

OptionProbability

has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk

has had a 1 year period with no public mention from Musk

has an official twitter feed

endorses a republican candidate (primary or general)

is an organization with verified full time employees

runs a candidate in a state or local election

takes donations

runs a candidate in a federal election

endorses a democrat candidate (primary or general)

registered with the FEC

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.92%chance

212048

OptionVotes

YES

2596

385

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

YES

1009

826

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.75%chance

211404

OptionVotes

YES

1162

895

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

28.21%chance

6518

OptionVotes

YES

1373

809

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.43%chance

2501

OptionVotes

YES

1496

841

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.33%chance

3225

OptionVotes

YES

1015

988

Will I get at least one 7 on Paper 1, 2, or 3 of M26 IB Math A&A HL Exam?

Apr 13, 1:54 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

1199

OptionVotes

YES

1199

886

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1109

902

Verified Organization News

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Will I get at least one 7 on Paper 1, 2, or 3 of M26 IB Math A&A HL Exam?

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

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