Verified Organization News

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

9950

101

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

313855

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

502290

OptionProbability

has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk

has had a 1 year period with no public mention from Musk

has an official twitter feed

endorses a republican candidate (primary or general)

is an organization with verified full time employees

runs a candidate in a state or local election

takes donations

runs a candidate in a federal election

endorses a democrat candidate (primary or general)

registered with the FEC

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.03%chance

171704

OptionVotes

YES

2289

437

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

181414

OptionVotes

YES

1241

941

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.75%chance

211404

OptionVotes

YES

1162

895

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5433

OptionProbability

5-8

8-11

2-5

11-14

14-17

17-20

20-23

23-26

26-29

29-32

32-35

35-38

38-41

41-44

44-47

47-50

50-53

53-56

56-59

59-62

62-65

65-68

68-71

71-74

74-77

77-80

80-83

83-86

86-89

89-92

92-95

95-98

98-101

101-104

104-107

107-110

110-113

113-116

116-119

119-122

122-125

125-128

128-131

131-134

134-137

137-140

140-143

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

1255

859

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1109

902

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

124

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Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

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