Verified Organization News

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

YES

14201

7469

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

534253

OptionProbability

has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk

has had a 1 year period with no public mention from Musk

endorses a republican candidate (primary or general)

has an official twitter feed

takes donations

registered with the FEC

is an organization with verified full time employees

runs a candidate in a federal election

runs a candidate in a state or local election

endorses a democrat candidate (primary or general)

100

Will 2027 be the hottest year on record

Oct 14, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

274033

OptionVotes

YES

1601

625

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.11%chance

173378

OptionVotes

YES

1889

529

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.88%chance

221704

OptionVotes

YES

1462

789

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

121262

OptionVotes

YES

2005

499

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be found guilty in any of the existing bribery/fraud cases?

Oct 24, 4:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

6523

OptionVotes

YES

1319

758

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.54%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

37.89%chance

15368

OptionVotes

YES

1089

815

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.52%chance

5265

OptionVotes

YES

1028

967

Verified Organization News

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Will 2027 be the hottest year on record

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be found guilty in any of the existing bribery/fraud cases?

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Latest stories