Verified Organization News

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20.28%chance

334175

OptionVotes

YES

1983

504

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

522784

OptionProbability

has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk

has had a 1 year period with no public mention from Musk

has an official twitter feed

endorses a republican candidate (primary or general)

takes donations

is an organization with verified full time employees

runs a candidate in a state or local election

runs a candidate in a federal election

registered with the FEC

endorses a democrat candidate (primary or general)

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.33%chance

222398

OptionVotes

YES

2946

339

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.8%chance

132088

OptionVotes

YES

1124

890

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.75%chance

211404

OptionVotes

YES

1162

895

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

3526

OptionVotes

YES

1521

836

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.4%chance

8346

OptionVotes

YES

1119

894

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.43%chance

4245

OptionVotes

YES

1008

990

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.53%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

1051

952

How many unique couples who do not reside in NH attend the Family Planning Weekend?

Jun 12, 2:50 AMAug 31, 3:50 AM

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 3

Above 6

Above 9

Above 12

Verified Organization News

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

How many unique couples who do not reside in NH attend the Family Planning Weekend?

Latest stories