Verified Organization News

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

YES

12271

8388

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.2%chance

173278

OptionVotes

YES

1789

559

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 4:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

522784

OptionProbability

has had a 6 month period with no public mention from Musk

has had a 1 year period with no public mention from Musk

has an official twitter feed

endorses a republican candidate (primary or general)

takes donations

is an organization with verified full time employees

runs a candidate in a state or local election

runs a candidate in a federal election

registered with the FEC

endorses a democrat candidate (primary or general)

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Apr 22, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.88%chance

221704

OptionVotes

YES

1462

789

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.96%chance

10862

OptionVotes

YES

1605

623

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

1500

841

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

37.89%chance

15368

OptionVotes

YES

1089

815

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.98%chance

7319

OptionVotes

YES

1041

960

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.52%chance

5265

OptionVotes

YES

1028

967

Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute

Jul 12, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

1200

833

Verified Organization News

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Prediction markets for Verified Organization

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

What will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute

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