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Prediction markets for Version

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.37%chance

979742016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10401

9520

Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)

Mar 8, 7:30 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

12.86%chance

245164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1737

817

Will Taylor Swift release Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) last?

Apr 26, 6:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.48%chance

274298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

57

Will the next version of Microsoft Windows operating system (Windows 12) be released before Grand Theft Auto 6?

Dec 29, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.81%chance

493250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

300

Will Nintendo release an OLED version of the Switch 2 within 2 years of release?

Jun 5, 6:49 AMJun 5, 6:45 AM

22%chance

212123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

Will any restaurant serve hybrid-rice (rice grains with animal cells) by the end of 2028? [Extended Deadline Version]

Feb 19, 9:22 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

31.9%chance

211832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

846

Will Anthropic release a model with a higher version number than 4.6 by April 15th?

Mar 17, 8:24 PMApr 16, 2:59 AM

41.23%chance

261455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Jan 13, 6:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

66.83%chance

6879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

705

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

13617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

922

Will there be a slay the spire, the board game, version in the steam store?

Jun 8, 1:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.42%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Will the Podfic version of Animorphs: The Reckoning finish by January 1st, 2028?

Aug 14, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.77%chance

1135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

882

Will the next version of the C programming language (C2y) include a "defer" feature?

Apr 22, 6:20 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

55.76%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

901

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