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Prediction markets for Vibe

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Jan 2, 7:50 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

88.69%chance

113448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2800

357

AI bigger than abortion: What will the VIBES say?

Jan 8, 5:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

87.47%chance

212169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2612

310

Will society collapse due to diminishing oil production after Peak Oil was reached? [vibes]

Mar 13, 11:43 AMJan 20, 10:59 PM

4.98%chance

11958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

953

171

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

6700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

90

How long until someone vibe codes a robot that accidentally kills them?

May 2, 8:47 AMDec 31, 10:23 PM

16510

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

41

32

25

8

4

Will my vibe-coded power supply explode?

Oct 28, 7:04 PMNov 18, 7:02 PM

19.19%chance

17470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Will my vibe-coded Kalshi algorithm be profitable?

Jan 1, 10:21 AMDec 31, 10:18 AM

34.64%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

In 2030, will we still believe economies should mature into becoming service-based? [vibes]

Feb 20, 11:07 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

66.8%chance

13252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

960

Will it be possible to vibe code a Grand Theft Auto-scope+style game "in a few minutes" before GTA 6 releases?

Jan 13, 12:44 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

2.29%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

96

Vibe stock

May 17, 9:55 AMMay 17, 9:59 PM

254

OptionProbability

NO

YES

86

29

Will "Don’t ignore bad vibes you get from people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 20, 4:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

93

Where do you expect Rust to rank among programming languages for “vibe coding” in 2027?

Jan 20, 9:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70

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