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Prediction markets for Video

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.85%chance

20759981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

926

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

41.79%chance

12857881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

675

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

90.3%chance

8118401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6669

4866

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3717854

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

51

49

41

36

26

0

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

48%chance

406304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

893

SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.81%chance

335935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4447

225

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.18%chance

955673

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1920

1549

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

535035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

430

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74937

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

47

20

11

8

7

7

Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?

Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

13.06%chance

42094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2563

125

Will CGP Grey ever release another video in the Reservations series?

Jul 22, 1:34 AMMay 14, 6:59 AM

28.17%chance

111859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1597

626

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