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Prediction markets for Video

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

86.58%chance

177112186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

144

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.81%chance

21665360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2326

331

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

7528472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

982

Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?

Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM

93.18%chance

8926048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9311

4632

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1119711

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

91

2

2

2

2

2

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.53%chance

5015948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1682

474

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

20.97%chance

467509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

462

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.51%chance

626005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2198

167

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.74%chance

965688

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1903

1563

Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?

Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

10.79%chance

52234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2703

107

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