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Prediction markets for Video AI Agents

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Jun 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

89823759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

655

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027

Jun 8, 4:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.29%chance

36278926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2554

392

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

26.41%chance

131634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

600

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.27%chance

387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)?

Apr 17, 9:34 PMMar 5, 12:00 PM

35.18%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

170

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Mar 16, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2027

76

66

50

50

50

34

24

Will a sitting head of state post a video of themselves dancing on TikTok or Instagram Reels by end of 2026?

Apr 17, 9:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

56.62%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

194

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