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Prediction markets for Video AI Agents

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Jun 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.89%chance

89820326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027

Jun 8, 4:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

34278398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)?

Apr 17, 9:34 PMMar 5, 12:00 PM

35.18%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

170

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Mar 16, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2027

76

66

50

50

50

34

24

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.94%chance

334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will a sitting head of state post a video of themselves dancing on TikTok or Instagram Reels by end of 2026?

Apr 17, 9:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

56.62%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

194

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