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Prediction markets for Video AI Agents

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1418767

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Mar 16, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2027

76

66

50

50

50

34

24

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