Viral News

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A second major version of the model has been released

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

Video will include sound

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

Sora will be part of GPT model

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

It has been renamed

It will be free to use

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A third major version of the model has been released

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

Full description of model architecture will be public

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.

6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.

10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.

2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).

9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.

3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.

4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.

7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.

8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.

1. @flowersslop must prefer its output for any prompt at least 80% of the time vs GPT-4o. No exceptions.

4. Avm must be way better. Sesame level minimum.

2. It must be able to create an acceptable Doodle Jump clone, end to end, no bugs or flaws, and it must look genuinely beautiful — at least 3 out of 5 tries.

3. Image generation v2 must look at least as good as Midjourney v7, while being at least as intelligent as 4o imagegen. +1 Bonus if it’s uncensored.

10. It must not make any dumb, viral mistakes in week one. No 9.9–9.11, no “how many Rs in strawberry” type errors. Nothing memeably stupid.

5. Some kind of better personalization that isn’t just sloppy memory or static custom instructions. Something that actually feels personal and cool, like midjourney customization.

9. All features that make GPT-5 unique or cool must be available instantly via ChatGPT Plus. Only exception tolerated is a GPT-5 Pro

8. Normal people who don’t care about AI must feel that GPT-5 is a lot better. @flowersslop wants to see demand explode.

7. Needs a new gimmick that’s cool or fun or useful. Something fresh. Like avatars, proactive texting, or anything novel that no other LLM provider is doing yet.

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about people getting scammed

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity in academic communities

Reports of activity in online video games

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

NO

Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)

Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section

Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("

Friend who took a long time in the bathroom

Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers

Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth

Sketchy human ATM

Depression after a team I never heard of loses

Before Sunrise POV in record shop

Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is

Glass of Thrones letdown

Remembering that PBR was a thing

Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall

A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)

Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty

Candy addiction hotline

Friend who thinks they're safety officer

Brainstorming how to become viral

Slytherin doing the math

Cheap Airbnb tour

American Express review

Future Me

Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow

How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)

Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company

NFC Translation

Satire of sales ads

Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.

Every time I try to order a beer

Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot

Cancer treatment

Targeting viral infections (e.g., HIV)

Enhancing human physical abilities

NO

YES

Other

A new global pandemic

A major natural disaster affecting multiple states

A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry

Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts

A severe economic recession leading to panic buying

A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks

Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews

A sudden surge in population due to mass migration

A widespread power grid failure

A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery

A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production

A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling

A recall of contaminated toilet paper products

A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant

A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods

A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply

A major political event causing widespread uncertainty

A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage

A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment

YES