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Prediction markets for Virtual Machines

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

9797280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

850

Will we get ASI before 2027?

Feb 3, 2:34 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.14%chance

7645536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10060

624

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

7344684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1936

816

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Dec 31, 12:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.67%chance

6623702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4319

685

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

24.64%chance

7020736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

858

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.23%chance

7319004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

862

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.28%chance

637634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

878

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.87%chance

607044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

808

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will we get ASI before 2035?

Jun 21, 10:28 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

27.94%chance

494432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Will we get ASI before 2036?

Jun 25, 10:58 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

29.8%chance

404273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Feb 17, 7:14 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

211453

OptionProbability

>=2035

2032

2033

2034

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

<=2025

2026

51

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

2

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