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Prediction markets for Virtual Machines

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.46%chance

9394808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

825

Will we get ASI before 2027?

Feb 3, 2:34 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.01%chance

7545524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11171

612

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5.27%chance

6843779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3347

706

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Dec 31, 12:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.88%chance

6423564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7504

600

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.09%chance

6820483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1626

770

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.42%chance

7118912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

782

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.4%chance

617504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

818

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.31%chance

756761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1841

1310

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.33%chance

556703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

784

Will we get ASI before 2035?

Jun 21, 10:28 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

31%chance

424023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6755

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

3

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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