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Prediction markets for Virtual Machines

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.52%chance

8892869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

707

Will we get ASI before 2027?

Feb 3, 2:34 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

7445523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11221

612

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5.35%chance

6843777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3307

709

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Dec 31, 12:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.9%chance

6423563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7460

601

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

17.51%chance

6420323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

743

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.42%chance

7118912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

782

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.4%chance

617504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

818

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.51%chance

556653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

803

Will we get ASI before 2035?

Jun 21, 10:28 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

32.88%chance

393941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Feb 17, 7:14 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

211453

OptionProbability

>=2035

2032

2033

2034

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

<=2025

2026

51

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

2

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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