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Prediction markets for Vision AI

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21422565

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

DeepSeek

The Chinese Communist Party

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

30

25

17

11

6

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

915021

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

13.91%chance

283077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

402

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.19%chance

332522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

688

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Which company has best Vision AI model end of 2025? (Vision Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8647

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Meta

xAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Alibaba

StepFun

Other

46

30

7

4

4

3

3

3

3

Will the next Apple Vision headset be called the "Vision Air"?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.57%chance

12576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

610

Will there be double the units sold of the Apple Vision Air than the Apple Vision Pro by 2026?

Feb 5, 12:15 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

18.14%chance

9280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

46

Will "Four visions of Transformative AI success" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 15, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What is the classification and type of aircraft is the Cirrus Vision SF50 G2?

Apr 5, 5:23 AM

00

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