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Prediction markets for Vision AI

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1764796

OptionProbability

Above 50%

Above 60%

Above 70%

Above 80%

Above 90%

100

100

33

12

9

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21822675

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

32

25

16

10

6

4

3

3

1

0

0

0

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

45.1%chance

295557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

906

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.3%chance

343022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2489

612

Which company has best Vision AI model end of 2025? (Vision Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

161239

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Alibaba

Anthropic

Meta

xAI

Other

DeepSeek

StepFun

70

10

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will the next Apple Vision headset be called the "Vision Air"?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.57%chance

12576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

610

Will there be double the units sold of the Apple Vision Air than the Apple Vision Pro by 2026?

Feb 5, 12:15 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

18.14%chance

9280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

46

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will "Four visions of Transformative AI success" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 15, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

95

What is the classification and type of aircraft is the Cirrus Vision SF50 G2?

Apr 5, 5:23 AM

00

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