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Prediction markets for Vision AI

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

22823864

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepMind

Other

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

Elon's X.AI company

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

32

23

18

14

5

3

2

2

1

0

0

0

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

435358

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Pen

Earbuds

Other

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

94

4

1

1

0

0

0

0

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

152009

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

44

30

27

26

26

26

26

23

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

26.41%chance

131634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

600

Will the next Apple Vision headset be called the "Vision Air"?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

12857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

656

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

48

41

6

4

Will Dario Amodei Say Anthropic Has a “Genius in a datacenter” before April 2027?

Nov 5, 10:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will Apple announce any camera-equipped AI wearable before 2027?

May 9, 11:11 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

20.35%chance

5120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

68

Connectome of jumping spider or a Portia spider by 2031

May 12, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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