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Prediction markets for Vision Language Model

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.17%chance

144554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4791

209

When will OpenAI release a robotics model?

Jan 5, 1:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

392477

OptionProbability

Later than 2027

2027

2026

2025

2024

48

25

23

4

0

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

Mar 24, 1:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9303

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

87

61

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

May 27, 10:30 PMAug 25, 12:00 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

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