Vision Language Model News

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

3612418

OptionVotes

YES

19650

5089

What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

Apr 1, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4511762

OptionProbability

MIT or Apache license

Uses Mixture of Experts

At least 30B parameters

At least 70B parameters

An instruct model is made accessible

Is a reasoning model

released in the month of August 2025

At least 20B Parameters

better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

At least 300B parameters

The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

A base model is made accessible

my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

released in the month of June 2025

released in the month of July 2025

released in September, October, November, or December 2025

At least 120B Parameters

100

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

YES

1103

907

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.19%chance

332522

OptionVotes

YES

1989

688

When will OpenAI release a robotics model?

Jan 5, 1:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

372312

OptionProbability

Later than 2027

2026

2027

2025

2024

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131937

When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

Apr 22, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91778

OptionProbability

By the end of 2029

By the end of 2028

By the end of 2027

By the end of 2026

By the end of 2025

2030 or later

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

8.16%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

335

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

Mar 24, 1:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9278

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

May 27, 10:30 PMAug 25, 12:00 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

140

Vision Language Model News

Prediction markets for Vision Language Model

Prediction markets for Vision Language Model

Prediction markets for Vision Language Model

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

When will OpenAI release a robotics model?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

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