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Prediction markets for ViT

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.24%chance

287553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

927

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

191961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

780

Will in vitro fertilization become illegal or totally inaccessible in any state before 2030?

Feb 27, 5:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

501723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

848

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.26%chance

271090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

732

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

72.73%chance

15859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1649

585

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will in-vitro gametogenesis be used to produce a functional embryo by 2028?

May 25, 7:09 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

30.92%chance

4697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.38%chance

27558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2247

1847

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

941

Will Joe Rogan interview Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vitali Klitschko, or Garry Kasparov by end 2025?

Dec 1, 1:32 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.27%chance

5115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

98

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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