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Prediction markets for VITA

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.24%chance

287553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1580

927

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

172172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

616

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

201981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

780

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.26%chance

271090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

732

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

12299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

941

Will "From Vitalik: Galaxy brain resistance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 12, 12:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.13%chance

3271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

964

Which series will be nominated for a Hugo award in 2026?

Jan 7, 3:16 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

2265

OptionProbability

The Cemeteries of Amalo - Katherine Addison

Dogs of War - Adrian Tchaikovsky

Emily Wilde - Heather Fawcett

October Daye - Seanan McGuire

The Singing Hills Cycle - Nghi Vo

Legends & Lattes - Travis Baldree

The Hunger Games - Suzanne Collins

Old Man's War - John Scalzi

Rivers of London - Ben Aaronovitch

The Midsolar Murders - Mur Lafferty

Martin Hench - Cory Doctorow

Legendborn - Tracy Deonn

Vita Nostra - Marina & Sergey Dyachenko

The Witcher - Andrzej Sapkowski

Wild Cards - George R.R. Martin

Astreiant Series - Melissa Scott

69

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

35

30

30

25

20

15

15

10

How many times will Vitalik Buterin post about quantum ("quantum", "qubits", "quantum computing") on X within the next 3

Jan 14, 7:56 AMApr 14, 7:55 AM

490

OptionProbability

E) 4 or more times

A) 0 times

C) 2 times

B) 1 time

D) 3 times

32

21

21

15

10

Is vitalik buterin more deuterated than the average human

Jan 24, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74

34

Sea level NASA Vital Sign of the Planet in 2073

Dec 10, 2:34 PMDec 9, 9:00 PM

8.31%chance

120

OptionProbability

NO

YES

270

270

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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