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Prediction markets for VITA

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

172172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

616

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

201981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

780

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.26%chance

271090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

732

Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?

Nov 18, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3.83%chance

18958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

961

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.49%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

956

Will "From Vitalik: Galaxy brain resistance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 12, 12:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.13%chance

3271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

964

Will "The worthlessness of vitamin D is mildly exag..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 4:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

2261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?

Jun 20, 1:07 AMDec 27, 6:59 AM

4225

OptionProbability

2025

Other/Never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2024

72

72

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

Sea level NASA Vital Sign of the Planet in 2073

Dec 10, 2:34 PMDec 9, 9:00 PM

8.31%chance

120

OptionProbability

NO

YES

270

270

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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