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Prediction markets for VITA

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

172172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

616

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

201981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

780

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.26%chance

271090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

732

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.49%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

956

Will "From Vitalik: Galaxy brain resistance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 12, 12:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.13%chance

3271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

964

Which series will be nominated for a Hugo award in 2026?

Jan 7, 3:16 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

2265

OptionProbability

The Cemeteries of Amalo - Katherine Addison

Dogs of War - Adrian Tchaikovsky

Emily Wilde - Heather Fawcett

October Daye - Seanan McGuire

The Singing Hills Cycle - Nghi Vo

Legends & Lattes - Travis Baldree

The Hunger Games - Suzanne Collins

Old Man's War - John Scalzi

Rivers of London - Ben Aaronovitch

The Midsolar Murders - Mur Lafferty

Martin Hench - Cory Doctorow

Legendborn - Tracy Deonn

Vita Nostra - Marina & Sergey Dyachenko

The Witcher - Andrzej Sapkowski

Wild Cards - George R.R. Martin

Astreiant Series - Melissa Scott

69

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

35

30

30

25

20

15

15

10

Is vitalik buterin more deuterated than the average human

Jan 24, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74

34

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Who will Win EVW 23 Armwrestling Between Devon Larratt and Vitaly Laletin, Right Handed?

Mar 12, 10:16 PMApr 19, 10:14 PM

00

OptionProbability

Vitaly Laletin (Russia)

Devon Larratt (Canada)

50

50

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