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Prediction markets for VITA

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?

Jun 20, 1:07 AMDec 27, 6:59 AM

102837

OptionProbability

Other/Never

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

68

50

50

50

50

50

37

31

31

20

14

5

1

1

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

212514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

716

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

23.88%chance

172272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

583

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.13%chance

281190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

665

Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?

Nov 18, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3.83%chance

18958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

961

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

16891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

881

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will "From Vitalik: Galaxy brain resistance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 12, 12:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.13%chance

3271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

964

Will "The worthlessness of vitamin D is mildly exag..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 24, 4:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

2261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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