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Vitória Cup News

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Jul 20, 4:26 AMJul 20, 4:15 AM

27338208

OptionProbability

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Fold a paper airplane

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Make correct Truchet tiles

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Kill everyone - Liron

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Faster than light travel

BOTAFOGO ⚽: Which matches will they win in 2025 🏆?

Feb 21, 2:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

638154

OptionProbability

2025-01-14: PORTUGUESA RJ vs BOTAFOGO (Carioca - 1)

2025-01-26: BANGU vs BOTAFOGO (Carioca - 1)

2025-01-30: FLUMINENSE vs BOTAFOGO (Carioca - 1)

2025-02-07: BOTAFOGO vs NOVA IGUAÇU (Carioca - 1)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-06: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-04-08: BOTAFOGO vs CARABOBO FC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-04-05: BOTAFOGO vs JUVENTUDE (Serie A)

2025-06-16: BOTAFOGO vs SEATTLE SOUNDERS (FIFA Club World Cup)

2025-05-15: BOTAFOGO vs ESTUDIANTES L.P. (CONMEBOL Libertadores)

2025-05-28: BOTAFOGO vs UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE (CONMEBOL Libertadores)