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Prediction markets for VL

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.46%chance

14535624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2977

1215

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.4%chance

14926930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7592

6014

Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2027?

Apr 30, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.91%chance

9421183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2572

312

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

18.44%chance

14817875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3428

1329

Will Vladimir Putin be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Nov 11, 3:08 PMJun 23, 12:59 AM

79.37%chance

14514856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1955

812

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

22.28%chance

15913859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1424

1391

Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?

Aug 11, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.84%chance

1045049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2261

1458

Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?

Dec 30, 11:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

37.16%chance

683931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1485

699

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

65.36%chance

1153038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

1527

Will Nikolai Patrushev or Dmitry Patrushev succeed Vladimir Putin as president of Russia?

Jun 17, 10:40 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

8.86%chance

922399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3242

1227

Top Score in 2026 Stanford VL Behavior Robotics Test

Aug 23, 3:00 PMNov 4, 4:59 AM

51271

OptionProbability

0.3000 - 0.3499

0.2500 - .29999

0.3500 - 0.3999

0.2000 - 0.2499

0.00 - 0.1999

0.4000 - 0.4499

0.4500 - 0.4999

0.5000 - 1.0000

60

13

9

6

4

4

2

2

Will Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?

Jul 7, 6:47 PMJul 7, 7:59 PM

55.22%chance

16679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

956

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