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Prediction markets for VL

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

1157

Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?

Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.22%chance

14624745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9509

5616

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

24.44%chance

14217223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2734

1516

Will Vladimir Putin’s death be the result of an assassination?

Jun 15, 6:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

27.12%chance

1348059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1507

1135

Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?

Aug 11, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.58%chance

1004230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1821

1442

Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?

Dec 30, 11:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

39.65%chance

583130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1520

644

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

Jun 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

57.79%chance

1092712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

1257

Will Nikolai Patrushev or Dmitry Patrushev succeed Vladimir Putin as president of Russia?

Jun 17, 10:40 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

8.86%chance

922399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3242

1227

Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

44.24%chance

231816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

756

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

Aug 3, 5:29 AMJan 2, 4:36 PM

191202

OptionProbability

OpenAI's GPT-4.5 / GPT-5

Anthropic's Claude 3 / 4

Other

Google DeepMind's Gemini 1.5 / 2

Meta's LLaMA 3.x

Mistral models (Mixtral, Mistral 8x22B, etc.)

xAI's Grok (via X / Twitter)

Cohere's Command R+ or similar

Alibaba’s Qwen series

DeepSeek models (DeepSeek-VL, DeepSeek Coder, etc.)

Other (please comment)

74

8

8

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?

Jul 7, 6:47 PMJul 7, 7:59 PM

49.55%chance

14557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

986

Will Vladimir Putin outlive Xi Jinping?

Oct 22, 9:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.93%chance

18422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

983

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