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Prediction markets for VLM

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

152009

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

44

30

27

26

26

26

26

23

Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027?

Mar 22, 3:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

13433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

74

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